Maneuvering game between USA, China and Russia

By Costas Raptis

We are just a few weeks away from Washington using the language of indirect but clear threats against Beijing, calling on Xi Jinping’s country to stay away, for fear of secondary sanctions, from stepping up Russia’s war effort or facilitating the circumvention of anti-Russian sanctions.

We are even fewer weeks away from Joe Biden’s Asian tour, when the US President, in another disgusting “blunder”, committed his country to (armed) defense of Taiwan in case it is attacked by mainland China.

And yet: in recent days, there are growing indications that Washington is putting a “brake” on the sliding of Sino-US relations to neo-Cold War tensions with unforeseen risks. And the key factor for this shift is nothing but … inflation.

Unblocking Trump’s legacy

From the outset, the current White House resident had expressed a general intention to lift tariffs on Chinese products, which were the most iconic gesture of his predecessor, Donald Trump, in matters of international politics. However, a year and a half after Joe Biden was sworn in, nothing has changed and tariffs on $ 370 billion worth of Chinese goods are still in place.

Inflationary pressures, exacerbated by sanctions against Russia, are changing the scene. According to data released in May last week, consumer prices rose 8.6% year-on-year, the fastest pace in 40 years – and Biden is in a hurry to find ways to de-escalate them. Accordingly, according to Politico, the White House has already hosted three meetings of experts on the subject, as well as bilateral meetings between the President and the Ministers of Finance, Janet Gellen (who is already publicly advocating for the abolition of tariffs), and Trade , Gina Raimondo, who is said to be more cautious.

Whether the lifting of tariffs on Chinese products is going to have a measurable effect is a matter of debate – however, according to one of Biden’s reports, it could gnaw at 1.3% inflation. However, how many and which of the tariffs could be lifted and at what rate is a decision complicated by calculations related not only to the need to protect employment in America, but also to the political prestige of the superpower.

Meeting with mixed messages

In the same context, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met in Luxembourg on Monday with Yang Jiechi, a member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China and director of the Central Bureau of External Relations. The White House said in a statement that the meeting, which followed a telephone conversation between the two men on May 18, was an opportunity for a “frank, substantive and productive discussion on a range of regional and international security issues, as well as fundamental issues.” in Sino-US relations “, with Jake Sullivan emphasizing the importance of” maintaining open lines of communication in managing the two countries’ competition “.

Stricter tones, however, dominate the Chinese version, as Yang Jiechi reportedly issued a series of warnings. “The United States must put China in the right strategic perspective, make the right choice, and translate into action President Biden’s remarks that they do not seek a new Cold War, that they do not seek to change China’s system, that they do not “They are targeting China by reviving their alliances, saying they do not support” Taiwan’s independence “and that they are not seeking a conflict with China,” the statement said. sovereignty and territorial integrity and considers the Taiwan issue a “political foundation” of Sino-US relations, which will continue to pose risks as long as the US seeks to use it to contain China.

Birthday phone gift with mutual assurances

Yang’s attitude at the meeting with Sullivan was nothing but the harbinger of an even more spectacular development that came two days later. On Wednesday, his birthday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping made his first phone call to Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine – refuting estimates that Beijing would abide by the new a balancing act, which could possibly be exploited by the West.

The combined reading of the Moscow-Beijing communiqué shows Putin and Xi reassuring each other that the Sino-Russian relationship is characterized by a degree of trust that “is not disturbed by current events and turmoil in the international situation” and that economic ties are about to , despite sanctions against Russia. The Kremlin resident even went so far as to emphasize Russia’s understanding and support for sensitive issues of China’s national interest, such as Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang, while his interlocutor reciprocated, stressing that his country faces the Ukrainian issue. “in its historical context” and seeks a “responsible settlement of the issue”. Typically, the words “territorial integrity”, “sovereignty”, “war” or “ceasefire” were absent from Xi’s position.

The Kissinger warning

But, of course, it could not be otherwise when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, despite China’s close economic ties with his country, which is the natural culmination of China’s “new Silk Roads”, was inspired in an interview. on the occasion of the Asian “Shangri-La Dialogue” on June 11, to call for stronger international support from Taiwan to China.

In any case, the China-Russia “permanent alliance”, warned by Henry Kissinger in the Davos Forum, is emerging as a possibility stronger than Western expectations. He himself, as foreign minister fifty years ago, masterfully managed to intervene in the US in the historically tense Sino-Russian relationship, determining the outcome of the Cold War. His successors do not prove to be equally adept.