The financial market forecast for the inflation in 2022 it increased from 7.65% to 7.89%. This is the 16th consecutive weekly rise in the median of forecasts for the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index). The expectation for the indicator in 2023 also rose, from 4% to 4.1%.
Inflation projections for both years, 2022 and 2023, are above the center of the target defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), respectively of 3.5% and 3.25%. The numbers are from Focus Bulletin of central bank (BC), released this Monday (2).
If the IPCA forecast for this year is confirmed, however, it will be the second year of breaking the upper limit of the inflation target, which in 2022 should not exceed 5%.
Thus, analysts also raised forecasts for the basic interest rate, the Selic in 2023, from 9% per year to 9.25% per year.
This year, the rate is expected to reach 13.25% per year. The Selic is the Central Bank’s main tool to control inflationary pressure.
At the next meetings, the decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom ) are already targeting the 2023 target and not later this year, as changes in interest rates take between six and 18 months to have an impact on economic activity. The next Copom meeting will take place on Tuesday (3) and Wednesday (4).
This Monday, the Focus Bulletin, which gathers estimates from more than 100 institutions in the financial market for the main economic indicators, it was published at 10 am and not at 8:25 am as usual.
The BC did not detail the reasons for the change in the publication time of the document. It was the second disclosure after three weeks without updating the document due to the BC civil servants strike .
Economic activity
The estimate of economic growth for 2022 advanced to 0.7%, up from 0.65% last week and 0.52 a month ago. There are already five consecutive increases in the projection for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP ) this year.
The market maintained its expectation of a 1% increase in GDP for 2023, which four weeks ago was projected to grow by 1.30%.
Source: CNN Brasil
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