The financial market reduced, for the sixth consecutive week, the inflation projection for 2022, which went from 7.15% to 7.11%. The numbers are from the Focus Bulletin of the Central Bank (BC), published this Monday (8). The document gathers the estimates of more than 100 financial market institutions for the main economic indicators.
The latest outlook drop comes as recent official activity data show a slowdown in inflation indicators.
Released this morning, the Consumer Price Index – Weekly (IPC-S) shows a 1.13% drop in the first four weeks of August, after a 1.19% decline in July, according to FGV (Fundação Getulio Vargas). The indicator accumulates a high of 6.02% in 12 months, lower than the advance of 8.0% in the period up to July.
The general expectation of economists is that the next two months will see a drop in inflation, in response to the reduction of state and federal taxes on fuel. The data closed in the month of July will be released this Tuesday morning (9) by the IBGE.
For the next year, financial institutions continue to forecast an increase in the inflation rate. According to this week’s Focus, the indicator will be 5.36%. This is the eighteenth consecutive time that the document shows a high result for next year’s inflation.
Inflation projections for the years 2022 and 2023 are above the ceiling of the target defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), respectively of 5% and 4.75%. The BC has already admitted that this should be the second consecutive year in which the upper limit of the inflation target will be breached.
Economic growth
In the case of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the projection is that the economy will reach 1.98% growth per year, up just 0.01 percentage point from the previous forecast, which was 1.97%. The growth expected by the government’s economic team for the year 2022 is 2%.
As for the basic interest rate, the Selic, the market still expects the year to end with the indicator at the current 13.75% per annum, although the BC has signaled in the last statement that it may make an extra adjustment of 0, 25 percentage point in September. That’s the result projected by the newsletter for seven straight weeks.
Source: CNN Brasil
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