Market lowers forecast for 2022 IPCA for the 17th week in a row and raises GDP until 2023

The market reduced for the 17th week in a row the expectation for inflation for 2022, shows this Monday’s Focus Bulletin (24). The document released by the Central Bank (BC) predicts that the IPCA, an index that measures official inflation, will end this year at 5.60%, compared to a projection of 5.62% in the previous week.

In 2023, the expectation of inflation in the financial market is 4.94%. In the previous week’s bulletin, the projection was up 4.97%.

The center of the official inflation target for 2022 is 3.5%, for 2023 it is 3.25% and for 2024 it is 3%, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.

For the Brazilian economy, the financial market revised its GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth for the second consecutive week. According to the document, the expectation is that Brazilian GDP in 2022 will be 2.76%, compared to the 2.71% projected last week.

For the following year, the financial market predicts a rise of 0.63% in the economy, compared to a forecast of a rise of 0.59% in the previous week. The value is still below the 2.5% projected by the Ministry of Economy.

Here’s this week’s top predictions:

• IPCA high of 5.60% in 2022, compared to 5.62% in the previous week
• IPCA high of 4.94% in 2023, compared to 4.97% in the previous week
• Selic at 13.75% at the end of 2022, compared to 13.75% in the previous week
• Selic at 11.25% at the end of 2023, compared to 11.25% in the previous week
• 2022 GDP growth of 2.76%, up from 2.71% the week before
• GDP growth in 2023 of 0.63%, up from 0.59% in the previous week
• Exchange rate of BRL 5.20 at the end of 2022, against BRL 5.20 the week before
• Exchange rate of BRL 5.20 at the end of 2023, against BRL 5.20 the week before
• IPCA at 5.13% in the next 12 months, compared to 5.24% a week earlier