Institutional investors lowered their forecasts for Brazilian consumer inflation this year, but raised their forecasts for 2023 and 2024, showed an XP survey released on Tuesday (28).
The median increase in the IPCA for 2022 dropped to 7.92%, according to the survey carried out between the 24th and 27th of June, against an advance of 9.12% predicted in the last survey by the financial institution, completed on the 6th.
For 2023 and 2024, however, inflation estimates from investors consulted by XP advanced to 5.11% and 3.50%, respectively, compared to rates of 4.75% and 3.38% in the previous survey.
These projections compare to inflation expectations calculated by the Focus survey around 8.5%, 4.7% and 3.25% for 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively, according to information released by the Central Bank at the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in the middle of this month.
Several experts have pointed to the growing prospect of inflation relief this year due to government measures to reduce fuel taxes.
However, as it has a possible negative impact on public accounts in a context of fiscal fragility, this type of action may have the opposite effect and put pressure on consumer prices in the longer term.
The median of responses from institutional investors consulted by XP shows Selic at 13.75% at the end of 2022, maintenance in relation to the previous survey. For next year, however, the forecast for the interest rate rose to 10.50%, from 9.75% before.
For Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the median projection pointed out in the XP survey is for growth of 1.60% in 2022, an improvement over the 1.50% rate estimated in the last survey.
Investors’ forecast for the following year was maintained at 0.50% economic expansion.
The median expectation of respondents for the exchange rate is 5 per dollar at the end of 2022, unchanged from the previous survey, and also 5 per dollar at the end of 2023, a slight improvement compared to the estimated rate of 5.03 previously.
Source: CNN Brasil
I am Sophia william, author of World Stock Market. I have a degree in journalism from the University of Missouri and I have worked as a reporter for several news websites. I have a passion for writing and informing people about the latest news and events happening in the world. I strive to be accurate and unbiased in my reporting, and I hope to provide readers with valuable information that they can use to make informed decisions.
