Market predicts primary surplus of R$ 40 billion in 2022, points out Fiscal Prisma

Despite growing optimism about public accounts this year, the market has once again worsened expectations for the 2023 fiscal result. According to analysts consulted monthly by the Ministry of Economyafter returning to the blue in 2022, the Central Government will again record a strong hole next year.

The October Fiscal Prism, published this Thursday (13) by the Ministry of Economic Policy, shows that the median for this year’s primary surplus went from R$ 30.519 billion to R$ 40.0 billion.

The market estimate is higher than the surplus of R$ 13.547 billion projected by the economic team last month – the first result in the blue since 2013. The Central Government’s primary result target this year admitted a deficit of up to R$ 170.5 billion .

Prisma’s median for total revenue in 2022 rose from R$2.220 trillion to R$2.239 trillion, with net revenue of R$1.861 trillion. The estimate for the total expenditure went from R$ 1.809 trillion to R$ 1.819 trillion.

For 2023, the scenario is for a worsening in public accounts amid uncertainties about electoral promises of increased spending next year. The projection of a primary gap in the Central Government went from BRL 43.177 billion to BRL 57.809 billion, increasingly closer to the BRL 65.9 billion limit for the deficit imposed by the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) of 2023.

The median for next year’s total collection went from R$2.297 trillion to R$2.312 trillion, with net revenue of R$1.884 trillion. The estimate for total expenses in 2023 jumped from BRL 1.910 trillion to BRL 1.936 trillion.

Also according to Prisma, the expectation for the Gross Debt of the General Government (DBGG) fell from 78.19% to 77.55% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year. However, the median for DBGG in 2023 increased from 81.70% to 81.80% of GDP.