Financial market agents continue to predict an increase in the inflation indicator for 2023.
According to the Focus Bulletin released this Monday (30) by the Central Bank, the IPCA should end this year at 5.74%. In the previous week, the forecast was that the accumulated inflation in the year was 5.48%. This is the seventh consecutive week that the report brings an upward revision of the IPCA for 2023.
On the other hand, the market is projecting an exchange rate lower than that forecast in the previous week. According to the survey, the exchange rate should close the year with an average price of R$ 5.25. This is the first reduction in the rate forecast, which has remained stable for two consecutive weeks at R$5.28.
Another indicator that changed was the forecast for the Brazilian GDP, which according to the BC should end the year at 0.80%. The country’s economic growth forecast had a slight change compared to the previous week, which projected GDP at 0.79% for this year.
Also according to Focus, the Selic, the economy’s basic interest rate, should remain at 12.50% in 2023.
Projection of improvement in fiscal
The financial market has also improved for three weeks in a row the projections of the fiscal indicators of the federal government. According to Focus, agents expect the public sector’s net debt to end the year at 61.4% of GDP. In the previous week, the forecast was 61.60%.
The primary result of public accounts also had a positive revision, according to the bulletin. The expectation is that the government ends the year with a deficit of 1.10% of GDP, however, four weeks ago, the projection was 1.20% of GDP.
See main predictions:
- IPCA rise of 5.74% in 2023, compared to 5.48% in the previous week
- IPCA rise of 3.90% in 2024, compared to 3.84% in the previous week
- Selic at 12.50% at the end of 2023, compared to 12.50% in the previous week
- Selic at 9.50% at the end of 2024, compared to 9.50% the week before
- GDP growth in 2023 of 0.80%, compared to 0.79% in the previous week
- GDP growth in 2024 of 1.50%, compared to 1.50% in the previous week
- Exchange rate of BRL 5.25 at the end of 2023, against BRL 5.28 in the previous week
- Exchange rate of BRL 5.30 at the end of 2024, against BRL 5.30 in the previous week
- IPCA at 5.63% over the next 12 months, compared to 5.42% a week before
Source: CNN Brasil
I am an experienced journalist, writer, and editor with a passion for finance and business news. I have been working in the journalism field for over 6 years, covering a variety of topics from finance to technology. As an author at World Stock Market, I specialize in finance business-related topics.
