The inflationary effects of war in ukraine already impact on forecasts on inflation and interest in Brazil and in the world. According to a survey by the brokerage BGC Liquidez obtained first hand by the CNN Brasil Businessthe market now projects a Selic rate by 13% at the end of 2022 compared to 12% in the previous forecast.
The prospect of higher-than-expected interest rates at the beginning of the year is not linked to a change in expectations for the Monetary Policy Committee meeting (Copom) which ends this Wednesday (16).
Of the 207 respondents linked to the financial market, among economists, managers and investors, 92% expect interest rates to rise by 1 percentage point, to 11.75% a year, the same expectation as before the war.
Even so, the BGC highlights that there was a slight increase in the divergence between what respondents think the Copom will do and what it should do, with 73% agreeing with the 1 pp rise and 14% advocating a 1.5% increase. pp
The changes expected by the market already begin in the signals and communications that the Copom should make after the meeting.
For 62%, there should be signs of the possibility of maintaining the current high pace in May, while 13% expect the committee to exclude the possibility of a slowdown and affirm that it will maintain the pace, but 25% expect an explicit sign of a slowdown.
Among those interviewed, 81% expect that the Copom will not give any indication of when the current upward cycle, which started in March 2021, will end.
In relation to the survey carried out after the Copom meeting in February, the market began to expect a higher increase at the May meeting, and to envision a greater chance of an increase in June and August.
In February, 58% expected a rise of 0.5 pp, and 28% expected the rate to remain unchanged. Now, 50% project a rise of 1 pp, 29% of 0.75 pp and 17% of 0.5 pp
The change was even greater compared to June, when 87% of respondents in February expected the rate to remain unchanged. Only 5% have this view at the moment, with 60% predicting an increase of 0.5 pp, 13% projecting an increase of 0.75 pp and 13%, of 1 pp
Although the majority of respondents, 53%, still expect the rate to be maintained at the August Copom meeting, the number is lower than that of February, at 96%. With the change in scenario, 28% project an increase of 0.5 pp, and 17%, of 0.25 pp
The expectation of maintenance of the Selic rate level was maintained for September (93%) and October (96%), while 95% expect maintenance in December, a value higher than the February responses, of 68%.
If before 23% of the interviewees thought that the fees could drop 0.5 pp in December, now only 2% have this view.
With this hardening of forecasts, the median of responses on the Selic rate at the end of 2022 rose from 12% to 13% per year. The most cited values ​​were 13% (27% of respondents), 13.25% (26%) and 12.75% (14%).
For the year 2023, 28% of respondents project the Selic rate between 9% and 10%, while 25% expect interest between 10% and 11% and, for 18%, interest should be above 12%.
The BGC Liquidez survey was carried out between 5 pm on Tuesday (15) and 7 am on Wednesday (16).
Source: CNN Brasil
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