Market raises GDP forecast for 2023 again, shows Focus

The financial market forecast for economic growth in 2023 has risen again. According to the Focus Bulletin, released this Monday (05), the market expects growth of 0.47% for the country. A week ago, expectations were up 0.37%.

The values ​​are still well below those projected by the government’s economic team in the 2023 Annual Budget Law, which predicts a GDP of 2.5%.

Falling for the third week in a row, the forecast for 2023 inflation is 5.27% compared to 6.70% in the previous week. This value is closer to that predicted by the Ministry of Economy, 4.5%.

For 2022, the projection is that the Brazilian GDP will reach 2.26%, compared to 2.10 a week ago, while the expectation of inflation has dropped to 6.61%, compared to 6.70%. This is the tenth consecutive week that Focus has positively readjusted these indicators.

On the basic interest rate, the Selic, the market does not foresee new highs, and expects the indicator to remain at 13.75%. The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Council (Copom) will meet again at the end of September to discuss the Selic.

For the financial market, the exchange rate should remain in the range of R$ 5.20 this year and next year.

• Market sees GDP growth in 2022 of 2.26%, compared to 2.10% in the previous week
• Market sees GDP growth in 2023 of 0.47%, up from 0.37% in the previous week
• Market sees IPCA rise of 6.61% in 2022, compared to 6.70% in the previous week
• Market sees IPCA rise of 5.27% in 2023, compared to 5.30% in the previous week
• Market sees Selic at 13.75% at the end of 2022, compared to 13.75% in the previous week
• Market sees Selic at 11.25% at the end of 2023, compared to 11% in the previous week
• Market sees exchange rate of BRL 5.20 at the end of 2022, against BRL 5.20 in the previous week