The financial market reduced the country’s inflation expectation in 2022. In the Focus Bulletin released this Monday (12), the market expects the IPCA to close the year at 5.79%, compared to the 5.92% predicted the previous week . For 2023, the survey maintained the inflation expectation at 5.08%, the same forecast last week.
The center of the official target for inflation in 2022 is 3.5%, for 2023 it is 3.25% and for 2024 it is 3%, always with a tolerance margin of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
The forecast for the country’s economic growth was also maintained in relation to the previous survey. According to Focus, the Brazilian GDP should be 3.05% in 2022, while in 2023, the expected growth is 0.75%, also the same value expected in the last survey.
After registering a high four weeks ago, the exchange rate forecast for 2022 remained at R$ 5.25, the same value projected in the previous week. For 2023, the exchange rate also remained stable, at the same value predicted for 2022.
The Selic, the basic interest rate for the Brazilian economy, also remained stable at 13.75%. The Selic was maintained at the same level by the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) at the last meeting, last week. For 2023, the market expects Selic stability at 11.75%.
Here are the top predictions for this week:
- IPCA rise of 5.79% in 2022, compared to 5.92% in the previous week
- IPCA rise of 5.08% in 2023, compared to 5.08% in the previous week
- Selic at 11.75% at the end of 2023, compared to 11.75% in the previous week
- GDP growth in 2022 of 3.05%, compared to 3.05% in the previous week
- GDP growth in 2023 of 0.75%, compared to 0.75% in the previous week
- Exchange rate of BRL 5.25 at the end of 2022, against BRL 5.25 in the previous week
- Exchange rate of BRL 5.25 at the end of 2023, against BRL 5.25 the previous week
- IPCA at 5.24% over the next 12 months, compared to 5.28% a week before
Source: CNN Brasil
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