New projections for the 2022 IPCA were released this Wednesday (24), with downward revisions amid the fall in fuels and electricity, which led to deflation in July and the deflation of the IPCA-15 in August.
This morning, the IBGE published a preview of inflation for the month of August, which fell by -0.73% – the biggest deflation of the indicator in the historical series, which began in November 1991. For Rafaela Vitoria, from Inter, the IPCA-15 at -0.73% brought little surprise. “The fall in food prices from the second half of August should bring relief ahead, but more restricted with the recent recovery of commodities in the international market”, she says. Inter’s expectation for the 2022 IPCA was already at 6.5%.
“The previous indicator for August showed the continued deceleration of inflation for goods, such as household items and clothing. On the other hand, services inflation has a slower deceleration, which was expected, as well as core measures, which, on an annual basis, are close to 8% pa. The data confirms our expectation of the end of the Selic high cycle, and the beginning of the reduction process in the first quarter in 2023”, evaluates the economist.
O bank of america also bets on the official inflation indicator at 6.5%, compared to a forecast of 7.2%, as announced today. According to BofA, the biggest impact for the deflation of -0.73% in August came from transport, as a result of the drop in gasoline and diesel.
On Tuesday (23), the president of the Central Bank (BC), Roberto Campos Neto, said that the monetary entity revised the projection for the IPCA for the year by 6.5% per year, in addition to increasing the GDP projection to 2.12%.
Nécton also revised its forecast for inflation, from 7.06% to 6.84%. According to Chief Economist André Perfeito, the latest results of consumer price collections have shown persistence of the fuel drop. “The drop in inflation is welcome and is forcing investors to revise their interest rate forecasts throughout the year,” he said.
Source: CNN Brasil
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