The expectation of economists and investors for the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom ) this Wednesday (21) is for a maintenance of the basic interest rate, the Selic at the current level of 13.75%, according to a survey released by the brokerage BGC Liquidez.
With this, an upward cycle started in March 2021, when the rate went from 2% to 2.75%, would come to an end. According to the survey, this is the projection of 81% of the 155 respondents. Already 19% expect the Copom to make a last increase in September, of 0.25 percentage point.
When asked about what the Copom should do, and not what they expect the committee to do, 75% say that the ideal would be to keep the fees at 13.75%, while 25% advocate an increase to 14%.
Compared to the last survey, in August, the market had little change in forecasts for the October and December 2022 and February, March and May 2023 meetings, with most expecting the Selic to remain at 13.75%.
For June, there was a slight increase, from 32% to 34%, in the share of respondents who expect a 0.5 pp cut in the Selic, while those who project stability fell from 44% to 37%. Third most cited alternative, a drop of 0.25 pp is expected by 12%.
The survey maintained the projection of consecutive cuts of 0.5 pp in the Selic rate in the August, September, November and December 2023 meetings. However, the projection for August is not the majority, falling from 53% to 46%, with slight win on lower cut bets of 0.25 pp
As a result, the average market expectation for the final Selic in 2023 rose from 11.25% in the August survey to 11.5% in the September survey.
Source: CNN Brasil
Joe Jameson, a technology journalist with over 2 years of experience, writes for top online news websites. Specializing in the field of technology, Joe provides insights into the latest advancements in the industry. Currently, he contributes to covering the world stock market.
