The financial market has worsened the projection for the primary result of the federal government’s accounts in 2022 after six consecutive months of more optimistic revisions, showed a Prisma Fiscal report released this Tuesday (12) by the Ministry of Economy, also indicating an increase in the forecast for gross debt for the year.
According to the document, which captures projections of market agents for public accounts, the expectation for the central government’s primary result this year was a deficit of BRL 20 billion, compared to a deficit of BRL 11.9 billion projected in June. .
The change of direction in expectations coincides with the proposal by the government and analysis in Congress of the PEC (Proposed Amendment to the Constitution) to release disbursements beyond the spending ceiling this year by approximately R$ 40 billion to boost social benefits.
Revisions to the projections for more positive results in 2022 had begun in January, when market agents improved the forecast for the fiscal gap this year from R$95.5 billion to R$88.7 billion.
The following results brought better prospects for public accounts, until the trajectory observed in the current survey was interrupted.
Market projections for the primary result reflect an increase in the estimate of total government expenditure, from R$1.770 trillion to R$1.793 trillion.
There was a less intense improvement in expectations for federal net revenue, from R$1.762 trillion in the previous report to R$1.775 trillion in this month’s survey.
With the worsening in the data, analysts consulted by the ministry increased the expectation for the general government’s gross debt in 2022 to 79.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared to 78.9% in the June survey.
The government has been recording collection records amid the resumption of economic activity and high inflation.
In addition to stating that the current strategy is to convert this revenue gain into tax cuts, the economic team gave approval for the approval of the PEC that creates and expands social benefits in an election year.
In recent months, the government has already announced cuts in PIS/Cofins on fuels, a reduction in IPI (Tax on Industrialized Products) for a series of products and cuts in import tariffs.
For 2023, market projections indicate a primary deficit of BRL 30 billion in the central government, compared to BRL 24.8 billion in the estimate provided by the previous report.
Gross debt next year, according to forecasts, should be 82.50% of GDP, compared to 81.75% forecast last month.
Source: CNN Brasil
I am Sophia william, author of World Stock Market. I have a degree in journalism from the University of Missouri and I have worked as a reporter for several news websites. I have a passion for writing and informing people about the latest news and events happening in the world. I strive to be accurate and unbiased in my reporting, and I hope to provide readers with valuable information that they can use to make informed decisions.
