Inflation data in the United States weighs on the markets on the morning of this Friday (11). In Brazil, the highlight was the preview of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), slightly below expectations.
Starting overseas, US futures open lower, extending yesterday’s strong lows. Inflation data above expectations by the market brought the indexes down last Thursday (10). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January rose 7.5% year-on-year, the highest level in four decades.
Inflation is widespread in the US, including for services, proving that the problem is no longer just a supply shock. The inflation data was added to the speech of James Bullard, member of the American central bank (Fed, its acronym in English).
After the inflation announcement, Bullard also advocated a one-percentage point increase in US interest rates through July.
US bonds passed 2% for the first time since 2019. With fixed income becoming more attractive, stocks fell sharply.
Reinforcing the thesis of global inflation and increase in interest rates in the world, Mexico and Peru announced increases in basic interest rates yesterday.
In Europe, stocks reflect the American market and operate in decline. The UK GDP grew by 7.5% last year, recovering the historic drop of 9.4% in 2020. The data was in line with expectations.
In Asia, stocks followed the bad mood in New York and also closed lower.
Brazil
This morning, data from the Economic Activity Index of the Central Bank – Brazil (IBC-BR), known as GDP preview, were released. The IBC-BR shows that the Brazilian economy advanced 0.33% in December, below market expectations, which had expected a rise of 0.6%.
In the closed year of 2021, the IBC-BR rose 4.5%. This lower-than-expected result reinforces the expectation that 2021 GDP should be around 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The upward revisions, expected on account of IBGE data on services, commerce and industry, should be left behind.
Analysts also assess that the lesser-than-expected PEC on Fuels reduces fiscal risk.
Ciro Nogueira, Chief Minister of the Civil House, signaled that the government should focus on the exemption of diesel oil, with a cost of R$ 18 billion, much lower than the expected loss of revenue of R$ 100 billion by a Proposed Amendment to the Broader Constitution (PEC).
However, analysts believe that what has really helped the stock market is the flow of foreign investments. In addition to the rotation of commodities in global markets, China announced record credit data, showing that Xi Jinping is willing to stimulate the economy in the year of his reappointment. Vale and Petrobras have been leading the rise.
As a result, the Ibovespa continues to take off and yesterday closed higher against the rest of the global indices.
The futures index registered a rise of 0.73% in the morning, at 114,104 points. The dollar, on the other hand, retreated 0.61%, quoted at R$ 5.20, the lowest level in the last 5 months. The S&P 500 futures was down 0.08%.
Agenda of the Day
In addition to publicizing the IBC-BR, Roberto Campos Neto, president of the Central Bank (BC), participates in an online event open at noon. The balance sheet season continues with Usiminas.
Outside, the agenda is emptier, with only Michigan consumer confidence indices at noon in the United States.
Source: CNN Brasil
