Markets monitor European economy, US inflation and Brazil unemployment

This Friday (28), the markets operate with an eye on data on the economies of European countries, the release of inflation in the United States and employment data in Brazil.

The employment data were released this morning by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Unemployment stood at 11.6%, down from 12.1% in the quarter ended in October.

The country, however, still has 12.4 million unemployed. Once again, the yield registered a drop: it was 11% per year, staying at the lowest level in history. Informality remains at 40% and the IBGE highlighted that the recovery in the labor market continues, but highlighted the importance of the seasonality of the end of the year.

The fuel PEC remains on the investors’ radar. Yesterday, the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, defended in a meeting with Palácio do Planalto the exemption of federal taxes on diesel.

According to the analyst CNN Gustavo Uribe, the discussion took place after the market resisted as it could generate a loss of revenue of R$ 70 billion, and is seen as a “fiscal bomb”. With the exemption restricted to diesel, the loss forecast drops to R$ 20 billion.

The market also monitors the decision of the Minister of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) Alexandre de Moraes, who ordered President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to testify today, at 2 pm, to the Federal Police, as part of the investigation that investigates the leak of information. about a hacker attack on the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).

The Ibovespa Futuro fell 0.56%, with 112,399 points. The Dollar has fallen by 0.03%, being quoted at R$ 5.42. The S&P 500 Futures is also down 0.86% to 4,289 points.

Exterior

Overseas, US futures were lower this morning. The great expectations of the market are due to the December inflation data in the United States, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), which leaves at 10:30 am.

Last Wednesday, the speeches of the chairman of the Fed, the US central bank, Jerome Powell, were tougher about fighting inflation and made the market predict more interest rate hikes in the country this year. Powell, however, left many uncertainties in the air. The data released today may provide further clues as to the next steps in terms of interest rates and stimulus in the US.

Yesterday, GDP data showed a 6.9% growth in the US economy in updated terms – above the expectation of 5.7%.

This morning, the Nasdaq futures rehearse a recovery after Apple’s record fourth-quarter sales release.

In Europe, stock markets fall in reaction to the continent’s GDP data. Spain had the biggest growth in two decades and France since 1969, but the increases come against the pandemic’s weak 2020 base, with data showing a slowdown in the last quarter. The negative highlight is Germany, with a drop of 0.7% in GDP in the fourth quarter, below projections of -0.3%.

In Asia, stocks closed mixed. Indices in China closed at their lowest in months, still under the impact of US interest rates and also with investors selling assets to seek to protect themselves from a volatile scenario on the eve of the Chinese New Year holiday week, which starts next Monday.

Agenda of the Day

Rent inflation data, the IGP-M, were released this morning, with a rise of 1.82% in January – below the market forecast of 2.01%. Even today, the Central Bank’s credit note and fiscal result should be released at 2:30 pm, followed by a press conference by Minister Paulo Guedes.

Abroad, the expectation is on account of PCE data in the United States and consumer confidence.