Global markets operate this Monday morning (28) attentive to the war in Ukraine, the rise in American interest rates and the lockdown in Shanghai.
Starting abroad, American futures open slightly higher after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is willing to discuss Ukraine’s neutrality.
Starting today, a new round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey is planned.
With the hope of some diplomatic breakthrough, analysts estimate that with the hope of some diplomatic breakthrough, the market’s focus shifts from the geopolitical situation to high interest rates in the United States.
US bond yields continue to climb, reaching above 2.5%, after US central bankers signaled they could support a half-point rate hike in May. A step the central bank never took in the last tightening cycle.
As RBC’s chief strategist summarizes to Reuters, US inflation does not seem to have reached its peak yet, so the market has not yet seen the peak of the Fed – US central bank.
The prospect of interest rate hikes in the US also brings forecasts of a stronger dollar and a weaker euro. And that helps to put pressure on inflation prospects in Europe.
In the morning, European stocks rose pulled by bank shares, which benefit from higher interest rates. Indices also rise reflecting optimism about the situation in Ukraine, and are approaching pre-war levels.
In Asia, stocks closed mostly lower after the announcement of a lockdown in Shanghai. The confinement will be done in two stages and is considered one of the most restrictive lockdowns imposed in China since the beginning of the pandemic.
With Chinese demand forecast to slump, oil prices are down more than 5%, to about $5 a barrel, to about $111.
Brazil
In Brazil, the stock market may have a correction day with the fall of oil abroad and other commodities. Commodities have fluctuated widely, rising when the prospects of the war worsen and falling when they improve, as the war brings further bottlenecks in the supply of commodities.
The dollar closed at R$ 4.74 on Friday, the lowest since the beginning of the pandemic on Friday (25), but today it rises in the world amid the increase in yields on American bonds. As yields rise, investors migrate resources to the United States and strengthen the currency.
Also highlighted here, the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, reinforced yesterday that the cycle of high interest rates should end in May, with the Selic – the basic interest rate – reaching 12.75% per year. But, once again, Campos Neto said that interest rates could rise further depending on the escalation of the war.
Indexes
The Ibovespa futures rose 0.27% this morning, at 120,166. The dollar was up 0.37%, quoted at R$4.76. In the US, S&P futures were up 0.04%.
Agenda of the Day
The release of the Focus Bulletin will be delayed further and should be released at 10 am instead of 8:25 am due to the standard operation of Central Bank servers. Data on direct investment in the country, referring to the month of February, were expected this morning, but will not be released this week, as announced by the institution.
At 2:30 pm, there is a federal collection for February. The balance sheets are heading to the final stretch, with results from HBR, Mosaico, Dasa and Ânima, which recorded a loss of R$ 152 million in the fourth quarter.
In the United States, the trade balance of goods and retail inventories stands out.
Source: CNN Brasil
