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Markets operate on Tuesday with new uncertainties about Ômicron variant

The market starts this Tuesday (30) with new uncertainties about the Ômicron variant of Covid-19, and also with agitated news on Brazilian politics.

In the country, the Ibovespa dropped 0.61%, around 10:15, to 102,183.77 points. The spot dollar rose 0.11%, quoted at R$ 5,6076.

Abroad, stock exchanges began a strong recovery on Monday (29), after the impact suffered on Friday, but the interview with the CEO of Moderna fell like a bucket of cold water.

The CEO said that the development of a specific vaccine for Ômicron could take months. The talk has heightened risk aversion and should set the tone in Tuesday’s markets.

Analysts are divided between those who think the variant will lead to a new wave of lockdowns and the more optimistic. Roberto Attuch Jr of Ohm Research said his baseline scenario is that Covid-19 is transitioning to becoming endemic.

He and other analysts have been drawing a parallel with the Spanish flu: when mutations took place and the virus became more contagious but less lethal, which led to the end of the pandemic. But he himself points out that for now everything is a guess.

In the United States, President Joe Biden said that despite the risks of the new strain, new lockdowns are not expected. Jerome Powell, president of the US Central Bank, said that inflation is likely to remain high in 2022 and that the Ômicron variant is a risk to economic projections.

Going to Europe, stocks fall with fear of a new variant and eyeing inflation in Germany, which rose 6.0% in 12 months, the highest in three decades. In Asia, stocks also fell.

Brazil

Coming to Brazil, it is noteworthy that this morning, employment data from the IBGE, the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) were released. The unemployment rate dropped from 13.2% in the quarter ended in August to 12.6% in the third quarter.

Investors also continue to monitor the PEC dos Precatórios, which should be voted on this Tuesday (30) at the Constitution and Justice Commission. The proposal provides for a change in the spending ceiling and a postponement in the payment of court orders to finance Auxílio Brasil.

Rodrigo Pacheco, president of the Senate, said that the PEC must pass the CCJ and may go to plenary on Thursday. The market liked the news.

In the same vein as in recent weeks, investors think that the PEC is bad for public accounts, but the alternatives for funding Auxílio Brasil could be worse. As it is also the path already known, the view is that the PEC is already in the price and reduces uncertainties.

Agenda of the Day

In addition to the PNAD disclosure, the Central Bank’s public sector note and the Caged data will be released at 3:30 pm.

On the international stage, consumer confidence in the US will be released, in addition to speeches by the president of the Central Bank, Jerome Powell and the secretary of the treasury, Janet Yellen, all at noon.

Reference: CNN Brasil

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