Investors keep an eye on the new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine this Monday (14).
Starting abroad, American futures are rising with expectations about a possible breakthrough in the discussions between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine said “tough” negotiations on a ceasefire had begun, despite the bombing of a residential building in Kiev this morning.
According to the Reuters news agency, Russia and Ukraine reported rare progress over the weekend, despite Russian bombings in cities across the country.
In Europe, stocks are also rising in the hope of some progress, but investors remain cautious as the latest discussions have not brought any changes.
Investors also keep an eye on interest rate decisions. United States, England, Japan, Russia and also Brazil set rates this week.
With inflation at the highest level in decades and now with the war, central banks are expected to raise interest rates further, cooling economies further. As a result, economists already fear a return to the stagflation scenario of the 1970s.
In addition to the war, another important highlight today is Asia. Stocks closed sharply down on fears about the advance of Covid-19 and the announcement of new lockdowns in China.
Brazil
In Brazil, in addition to the war, attention is turning this week to the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom).
The market expects an increase of 1 percentage point of the Selic – the basic interest rate – to 11.75% per year.
With the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) accelerating to 1.01% in February and oil soaring in the wake of the war, some banks already think a rise of up to 1.5 points could come.
The focus bulletin, released in the morning, reinforces this reading. The forecast for inflation this year rose sharply to 6.45%. For the next year, it rose to 3.70.
With higher inflation, the market also thinks that the Selic will rise more, to 12.75% this year and 8.75% next year.
Discussions about fuels are also on the radar. Despite President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) having sanctioned the project that sets the ICMS, truck drivers threaten work stoppages. In addition, with Bolsonaro’s pressure on Petrobras, the government already expects General Joaquim Silva e Luna to ask to step down.
Finally, it is worth noting that today the stock exchange is back to operating at normal hours, with the trading session ending at 5 pm instead of 6 pm. Opening continues at 10 am.
Indexes
The futures Ibovespa is up 0.47% with 113,032 points. The dollar fell 0.11% at R$5.04 and the S&P futures rose 0.22%.
Agenda of the Day
In addition to the Focus Bulletin, at 3 pm there is a trade balance. The Minister of Agriculture Tereza Cristina travels to Canada to negotiate an increase in the supply of potassium. Still on the agenda, company balance sheets follow, with emphasis on Magalu and Gol, which recorded a loss of almost R$ 3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Abroad, highlight the Chinese economy data at night.
Source: CNN Brasil
