The markets operate with an eye on the war in Ukraine this Tuesday (22). In Brazil, the minutes of the Central Bank (BC) on the interest rate decision are highlighted.
Starting abroad, American futures rose this morning on forecasts of more stimulus in China, and Volodymyr Zelensky saying Ukraine is prepared to discuss a non-NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) commitment.
Despite the intensification of the bombing, the Ukrainian president’s speech is seen as constructive by the market.
Investors also monitor discussions about sanctions by European countries on Russian energy. The siege at Mariupol adds to the pressure for action, but the Russian oil embargo divides the 27 European Union countries as they depend on Russia for 40% of their gas.
With the possibility of an embargo, the barrel of the Brent type rose more than 7% yesterday and continues to rise, quoted at US$ 116.
The president of the American central bank signaled yesterday that his priority will be to fight inflation, and with a heated job market, he can be more aggressive with interest rates if necessary.
The harsher tone, along with the rise in oil, led US indices to fall. The market also looks closely at the war in Ukraine.
In Europe, stocks rise in the morning with more constructive speech from Zelensky. In Asia, stocks closed higher with new stimulus in China. Highlight for the technology sector in Hong Kong, with Alibaba up 11.2%, after expanding its share buyback program.
Brazil
In Brazil, rising commodities made the Ibovepa take off abroad once again and close at the highest level since September last year. As Brazil is seen as a major commodity exchange, the rise in oil has helped to attract foreign flows.
With more dollars coming in, the US currency closed below R$5 for the first time since June last year. Petrobras rose almost 4% and Vale, more than 3%. Together they have a weight of 28% in the index. Today, with reduced risk aversion, commodities may fall and the stock market may correct.
This morning, the Central Bank released the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), which continues to highlight that the war in Ukraine generates uncertainty, but reinforces that it foresees a 1-point hike in interest rates at the next meeting, and with that it should bring inflation to targets in 2022 and especially 2023.
According to RB Investimentos, the BC’s tone was softer, and signaled that the bullish cycle should end at 12.75%.
Indexes
The Ibovespa futures rose 0.28% in the morning, at 117,370 points. The dollar was down 0.46%, quoted at R$4.92. S&P futures rose 0.19%.
Agenda of the Day
In addition to the Copom minutes, Roberto Campos Neto participates in the event at 9:30 am. The Ministry of Economy releases a report of income and expenses at 2:30 pm, with a press conference by the Secretary of the Treasury soon after. Balance sheets are highlighted by Copel, Even, PetroReconcavo.
Abroad, there is a speech by the president of the European central bank, Christine Lagarde. In the US, emphasis is given to the speech of regional Fed members – the American central bank; and API oil inventories data at 5:30 pm.
Source: CNN Brasil
