Markets start week with Ukraine on radar; in Brazil, the focus is on the fiscal scenario

Global markets opened the week with an eye on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and still under the influence of US employment data.

In the domestic scenario, investors are waiting for the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank (BC), which will be released tomorrow, in addition to the inflation data on Wednesday, with an estimate of a 0.55% increase in the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for January. If inflation remains above expectations, more pressure on interest rates is expected.

Investors are also wary of pressures to increase spending as elections approach. The main focus is the Fuel PECs. The market believes that the proposed measures generate a loss of revenue and are not enough to contain the advance of prices in the face of the increase in oil. Among the proposals that most predict loss, is that of Senator Carlos Fávaro (PSD-MT), with an impact of up to R$ 100 billion.

In the business news, the report by the Federal Public Ministry in the Administrative Council for Economic Defense recommended that the purchase of Oi Móvel by Tim, Vivo and Claro not be approved.

In the first trades of the day, the Ibovespa was operating close to stability, at 112,177 points. The dollar fell 0.75%, quoted at R$ 5.28.

abroad

Abroad, US futures indexes fell earlier, but began to show a slight rise shortly before the opening of the trading session. The market maintains the volatility of the last few weeks and digests the strong data from the payroll on Friday (4).

Adding the October and November revisions and the higher-than-expected jobs in December, 1.5 million more jobs were created than market expectations. The stronger economy reinforces the thesis of raising interest rates determined by the Federal Reserve System (FED) – the American central bank – and makes the stock market less attractive.

S&P Futures is up slightly, 0.15%, with 4,507 points.

Higher-than-expected inflation in the euro zone and the tougher speech of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde last week also reinforce the thesis of higher interest rates in Europe. After a mixed opening, European stocks followed the United States and operated slightly higher.

The situation in Ukraine, however, remains on the radar, with the White House warning that Russia could invade the neighboring country at any time. This Monday, all eyes are on the meeting between President Emmanuel Macron, of France, and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who are meeting in Moscow.

In Asia, the indices closed mostly down. On the other hand, in China, stocks reopened higher, after a week closed for the local New Year’s holiday. The indices incorporate gains in risk assets over the past week.

In the corporate sector, the highlight is Saudi Aramco, which again negotiated a US$ 50 billion stock offering – the equivalent of R$ 264 billion – which could be the largest in history.

Agenda of the Day

The Focus Bulletin was released this morning. With it, the forecast for inflation rose from 5.38% to 5.44% this year, remaining at 3.5% for next year. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022 remained at 0.3%, but fell from 1.55 to 1.53% in 2023. The projections for the basic interest rate, the Selic, remain at 11.75% this year. year and 8% the following year.

At 10 am, the production of vehicles by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea) should be announced and the trade balance is expected at 3 pm. Even today, the balance sheets of BB Seguridade and Porto Seguro are released.

Abroad, the day’s agenda is weak. In the United States, in the afternoon, the consumer credit data must be released.