Mega da Virada: see what are the chances of winning a R$350m prize alone

The long-awaited Mega da Virada draw, traditionally held on the last day of the year, can pay in 2021 R$ 350 million to a single player, if he hits all the dozens on his own.

Although the odds are low, winning the top prize is possible.

According to data from Caixa Econômica Federal, the bank responsible for the tender, there is a mathematical formula that explains the probability of success.

What is the chance of taking the top prize?

The chance is 1 in 50 million. This possibility is due to the number of different possible combinations in the lottery, explains Cristiano Corrêa, professor and coordinator of the Administration course at the Brazilian Institute of Capital Markets (Ibmec).

In this way, the possibility of hitting the six numbers changes according to the number of tens that the player selects.

That is, if the bettor chooses more tens, the probability of success increases. “When scoring 7 tens, for example, it is as if the player were playing 7 different games. So, now there are 7 winning balls inside that giant bag, which results in an expectation of 1 in 7,151,980, well below the previous one”, he says.

That’s why the chances of a person hitting the corner or the court are also greater.

More chances to win

In addition to the sena, bettors who match five or four numbers are also awarded in their respective ranges. In this case, the reward is much lower than the main one, but compared to the amount invested, it continues to pay off.

At the 2020 Mega da Virada, around 1,384 people hit the corner and walked away with R$ 48.9 thousand. Those who hit the court were 105,300 people, who pocketed R$ 919.27. The prizes paid to these bettors are smaller, as the chances of getting it right are much greater than at the sena.