Meteorologists at Colorado State University (CSU) predicted this Thursday (4) an “extremely active” Atlantic hurricane season in 2024, due to warm sea surface temperatures and lower wind intensity to disperse summer storms. and in autumn (in the northern hemisphere).
The widely observed CSU forecast predicts five major hurricanes, i.e. those with winds above 178 km/h, out of a total of 11 hurricanes that are part of a projection of 23 named storms.
Forecasts are closely monitored by coastal communities and energy companies. The Gulf of Mexico accounts for 15% of the U.S.'s total crude oil production and 5% of its dry natural gas production, and nearly 50% of the nation's oil refining capacity is located on its shores.
“We anticipate a well-above-average probability that major hurricanes will make landfall in the continental United States and the Caribbean,” CSU said.
An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major cyclones.
Last year, there were three major hurricanes that formed among seven hurricanes and 20 named storms, the fourth most named storms since 1950. The most damaging, Idalia, destroyed the west coast of Florida and made landfall as a hurricane. category 3.
Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the CSU forecast, said 2024 looks similar to other very active hurricane seasons.
The basis of his forecast is above-average sea surface temperatures, which fuel hurricanes, and the imminent end of the El Niño weather pattern, which brings strong winds that can disperse storms into the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean.
Source: CNN Brasil
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