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Mexican Peso Gains Traction as Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico Grows

Mexican Peso Gains Traction as Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico Grows
  • The Mexican Peso appreciates against the Dollar due to the weakness of retail sales in the United States, affected by high interest rates.
  • The Bank of Mexico reports a modest growth of 2.2% in foreign direct investment for the year.
  • The US economic outlook is positive, according to the White House advisor, ahead of Fed Governor Waller's speech.

He Mexican peso (MXN) rose against the United States Dollar (USD) on Thursday following a more subdued retail sales report in the United States (US), an indication that higher interest rates are impacting consumer spending. As for the labor market, it remains solid after the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that unemployment claims were below estimates. The USD/MXN pair is trading at 17.04, down 0.18%.

Mexico's economic agenda remains almost empty, although the Bank of Mexico revealed that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) registered an expansion of 2.2% at the end of last year. However, the data suggest that the growth rate slowed, without meeting the expectations of international organizations and economists.

Across the border, White House Economic Counselor Lael Brainard stated that the fundamentals of the US economy appear “pretty good” and that consumer purchasing power remains strong. Later, her former colleague, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, will give remarks.

Daily Market Summary: Mexican Peso Holds Firm as Foreign Direct Investment Grows

  • Foreign direct investment from Mexico reached 36 billion dollars, according to the Ministry of Economy. Although last year's data was a record high, it fell short of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's estimates of $43.9 billion.
  • A survey by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) revealed that 25 economists surveyed expected a higher figure, 38 billion dollars.
  • The US Department of Commerce announced that retail sales experienced a larger-than-expected contraction of -0.1%, recording a -0.8% month-on-month drop attributed to winter storms. Additionally, December sales data was revised downward from an initial estimate of 0.6% to 0.4% mom.
  • The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that for the week ending February 10, jobless claims fell to 212,000, below both the previous figure and the expected 220,000.
  • Markets expect the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve at the June policy meeting as they cut the odds for March and May.
  • The 10-year US Treasury yield is virtually flat at 4.253%, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) falls to 104.41, down -0.28%.
  • In its latest monetary policy decision, Banxico revised upwards its inflation expectations for the period between the first quarter and the third quarter of 2024, expecting inflation to converge towards 3.5% in the fourth quarter, based on the latest statement of monetary policy.

Technical Analysis: The Mexican Peso tests a key level while the USD/MXN hovers around the 17.10 level

USD/MXN consolidated in the 17.05-17.10 area over the last two days, holding near the 50-day SMA at 17.10. If buyers decisively break that level, the first resistance would be the psychological zone of 17.20. If the latter is broken, the pair could threaten the 200-day SMA at 17.29, before heading towards the 100-day SMA at 17.39.

On the contrary, if sellers intervene and push prices below the 17.05 area, this would pave the way for testing the 17.00 figure. Last year's low, at 16.62, is an additional point of decline.

USD/MXN Price Action – Daily Chart

Frequently Asked Questions about the Mexican Peso

What is MXN?

The Mexican Peso is the legal tender of Mexico. The MXN is the most traded currency in Latin America and the third most traded on the American continent. The Mexican Peso is the first currency in the world to use the $ sign, prior to the later use of the Dollar. The Mexican Peso or MXN is divided into 100 cents.

What is Banxico and how does it influence the MXN?

Banxico is the Bank of Mexico, the country's central bank. Created in 1925, it provides the national currency, the MXN, and its priority objective is to preserve its value over time. In addition, the Bank of Mexico manages the country's international reserves, acts as a lender of last resort to the banks and advises the government economically and financially. Banxico uses the tools and techniques of monetary policy to meet its objective.

How does inflation impact the MXN?

When inflation is high, the value of the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to decrease. This implies an increase in the cost of living for Mexicans that affects their ability to invest and save. At a general level, inflation affects the Mexican economy because Mexico imports a significant amount of final consumption products, such as gas, fuel, food, clothing, etc., and a large amount of production inputs. On the other hand, the higher the inflation and debt, the less attractive the country is for investors.

How does the Dollar influence the Mexican Peso (MXN)?

The exchange rate between the USD and the MXN affects imports and exports between the United States and Mexico, and may affect demand and trade flows. The price of the Dollar against the Mexican Peso is affected by factors such as monetary policy, interest rates, the consumer price index, economic growth and some geopolitical decisions.

How does the Fed's monetary policy affect Mexico?

The exchange rate between the USD and the MXN affects imports and exports between the United States and Mexico, and may affect demand and trade flows. The price of the Dollar against the Mexican Peso is affected by factors such as monetary policy, interest rates, the consumer price index, economic growth and some geopolitical decisions.

Source: Fx Street