Mexico: Ruling party exercises control over local elections

Mexico’s ruling Morena party is expected to extend its power beyond the traditional southern strongholds of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Sunday’s general election, winning four of six elections in states it does not control today, according to Bloomberg.

The election is a test of support for Lopez Obrador after three and a half years in power, as well as the strength of the opposition parties that have rallied against him, proposing joint candidates. Ever since Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO, formally founded the party in 2014, Morena and his allies have swept across the country, occupying 18 of the 32 state governments.

Mexico’s economy has not yet regained the level it was when Lopez Obrador came to power in December 2018, after being hit hard by the pandemic, with the fifth most Covid-19 deaths of any country. But the 68-year-old president remains widely popular, thanks in part to his anti-corruption agenda and social programs that give working-class Mexicans monthly cash transfers.

Morena’s strong opinion polls “reflect to a large extent the continued popularity of President Lopez Obrador, his long political career and the impact of government-created social programs,” Goldman Sachs, chief Latin American economist, wrote in Latin America. in a note before Sunday’s vote.

Polls suggest Morena is taking center-right Indalgo and southern Oaxaca from the center-right Institutional Revolutionary Party, known as the PRI, and southeastern Quintana Roo from the left-wing PRD. It leads by a narrow margin in Tamaulipas, in the northeast of the country, while northern Durango is ambiguous against a PRI candidate backed by two other opposition parties. The conservative National Action Party, known as PAN, is expected to retain the central city of Aguascalientes.

Morena’s strong performance would put him in a good position to win the presidency again in 2024, when Lopez Obrador will leave after his only six-year term. It could also mean the end of state control by the PRI, which ruled Mexico for decades under one-party rule until 2000, the Eurasia Group wrote this week. If the PRI does not win any of the votes, it will hold only two local states – both of which are due next year.

“It is possible that the PRI, the party that ruled for more than 70 years and returned to power in 2012 under President Pena Nieto, will be limited to one or zero states next year,” Eurasia wrote in the note.