Mid-term elections – USA: The “red wave” that did not come, the battle for the Senate and Donald Trump

US President Joe Biden looks likely to retain control of the Senate and Republicans to deprive him of a majority in the House of Representatives. But all eyes are already on 2024 with the possible announcement on Tuesday of Donald Trump’s candidacy for the presidency.

The victory of Democratic Senator Mark Kelly in Arizona last Friday means the balance in the Senate is currently tied 49-49, with two seats left to be decided, in Nevada and Georgia, four days after the US midterm elections.

Democrats only need one victory in one of these two states to retain control of the Senate, since in the event of a tie (50-50), Vice President Kamala Harris’ vote has the final say, as provided by the Constitution.

In Arizona, former astronaut Mark Kelly beat Blake Masters, who had strong support from the ubiquitous Republican former president Donald Trump in this presidential election.

The loss in Arizona was one of several the real estate mogul suffered against candidates he supported. But Trump screams once again about ‘election fraud’ refusing to concede the verdict of the election, as he did in his defeat in the 2020 presidential election.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans appear poised to regain the majority of the chamber, a development that will complicate President Biden’s legislative work.

But the GOP victory is projected to be much smaller than the “red wave” predicted. American news network NBC News this morning predicted a fragile five-seat majority for the Republicans with 220 members of Congress, compared to 215 for the Democrats.

“The red wave” that did not come

The Republicans appeared confident in recent months that they would easily regain control of both houses of Congress from the Democrats in the mid-term elections, promising a “red wave” (including sweeping victories of Republican candidates) and even a “tsunami” which, however, he did not come.

Their disappointing results are causing turmoil among their elected officials in Congress, foreshadowing a clean-up of political accountsn.

In a letter disclosed by Politico, pro-Trump senators are calling for a vote on their Senate leader to be postponed, posing a challenge to the current leader, Republican Mitch McConnell. “We are all disappointed that a ‘Red Wave’ did not materialize and there are several reasons for that,” they write.

Once the political landscape is set in both houses of Congress, all eyes will indeed turn to 2024 in the US, with former President Trump expected to announce his candidacy as early as next Tuesday, according to one of his close advisers.

“President Trump will announce on Tuesday that he will run for president. And it will be a very professional, very careful announcement,” his adviser said yesterday Jason Miller on “War Room,” the podcast of Steve Bannon, another close friend of Trump.

Donald Trump weakened

The Republican tycoon had already announced that he would make a “major announcement” from his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, hinting that he might run. A Donald Trump bid would be his third for the White House.

Although his influence in the Republican Party remains undisputed, he appeared weakened in the midterm elections after disillusioning many of his constituents.

In contrast, Florida Governor Ron DeSandis, the new star of the American right, was triumphantly re-elected. A victory that solidified his position as a potential challenger to Trump in the race for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential election.

Something that did not escape the attention of the billionaire, who last week took the opportunity to mock DeSandis, giving him the nickname “Ron-la-Morale”.

Coincidence or not, this coming Tuesday will also be the day of the release of the memoir of another potential rival of Donald Trump, his former Vice President Mike Pence.

The 2024 election could be a rerun of the 2020 election: his then-opponent, current Democratic President Joe Biden, confirmed this week his “intention” to run for a second term. But he made sure to postpone any final decision until next year.