Activity numbers for the first quarter came above the government’s expectations and data indicate that the economy will do well in the second quarter, said this Thursday (2) the undersecretary of Macroeconomic Policy at the Ministry of Economy, Fausto Vieira.
The sign is that it will be possible to revise the government’s official projection for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2022 upwards.
When presenting data that show positive surprises in the activity, Vieira considered that the ministry will not advance predictions of its parameter grid, noting that the ministry’s projection models have not yet been put to work with the new information.
The government’s current estimate points to a 1.5% growth in GDP in 2022. The next forecast will be presented by the Ministry’s Economic Policy Secretariat only in July.
“We did not review the parameters grid because there is a whole process, but the data for the quarter was good, better than we expected, and the data for the second quarter indicate that the economy will also be doing well”, said Vieira.
In the assessment of the head of the Ministry’s Special Advisory for Economic Studies, Rogério Boueri, although there is a risk that the monetary tightening implemented by the Central Bank will hold back activity, the Ministry of Economy does not believe in the possibility of a strong reversal of the data or of recession ahead.
According to Boueri, even if the GDP does not see further growth as of now, only the loading effect will cause the country’s activity to grow approximately 1.5% at the end of this year.
“The projections made by the Secretariat for Economic Policy were not overly optimistic. They were above market forecasts and, even so, they were below the actual GDP”, he said, noting that the SPE predicted a 0.8% increase in GDP in the first quarter.
Data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) show that Brazilian GDP grew by 1% in the first quarter of this year compared to the last three months of 2021, showing acceleration compared to the end of last year.
Ministry technicians also stated that the decline in investments in the first three months of the year revealed by GDP data does not represent a totally negative data.
That’s because, according to them, the drop reflected the impact of the disorganization of chains with the war in Ukraine and the wave of Covid-19 in China, but data already show a strong recovery in March.
Vieira pointed out that the ministry believes in the strength of investment in the country in the second half of the year because industry confidence indicators are also on an upward trajectory.
Source: CNN Brasil
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