Modest RBA Rise Frustrates AUD Bulls – SocGen

RBA raises cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.60%, but hints at a break already at the next meeting. Société Générale economists report that Australian dollar has started 2023 on the right foot, but enthusiasm has waned.

More frustration for AUD after RBA

“He RBA did not surprise and raised the CRT by 25 bp up to 3.60%, as widely expected. The statement reiterated that further tightening will be necessary to ensure that inflation returns to target and that this period of high inflation is only temporary. However, He also acknowledged that inflation has probably peaked and hinted at a possible pause as early as April..”

Our economists stand by their view of a high of 3.85% in April, below the 4.05% implied by futures.”

“AUD/USD is close to the chart support of 0.6680/0.6660 which represents the January low and the 50% retracement since last October. An initial bounce is expected, although the 200-day SMA and the neckline of the pattern at 0.6800/0.6850 they could limit the uploads. The next potential support is at the pattern target near 0.6550“.

Source: Fx Street

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