More than 1 billion people will go to the polls across South Asia in 2024

An election boycotted by the main opposition, as the longest-serving female prime minister in the world appears poised to extend her government.

A cricket legend and former prime minister languishing in prison versus a former fugitive seeking to return while a powerful army watches.

A populist leader hoping to enter his second decade in power while promoting a popular but religiously divisive brand of politics.

And an island nation recovering from its worst economic crisis in decades, after protesters stormed the presidential palace.

Four South Asian countries are expected to go to the polls next year in a major test of democracy that will see nearly 2 billion people in Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka vote from January to September.

All of the former colonies that gained independence from Britain in the last century are each in a different phase of growth and face a variety of crises and opportunities.

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Here's what you need to know about democracy's biggest show.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh, a country with around 170 million inhabitants, is the first to vote on January 7th.

The once multi-party democracy is being threatened as its ruling party, the Awami League, continues what rights groups say is a campaign to silence dissent, pushing the republic toward something more akin to a one-party state.

Sheikh Hasina, current prime minister and president of the Awami Party, is expected to be re-elected as the country's leader for the fourth consecutive term.

Hasina has been in power since 2009 and won the last election in December 2019, in a vote marred by deadly violence and accusations of voter fraud.

Missing then was his main opponent, Khaleda Zia, former prime minister and head of the main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), who was arrested the previous year on corruption charges.

For much of the past three decades, politics in Bangladesh has been defined by a bitter rivalry between the two women, who saw their politician father and husband, respectively, assassinated in office. Political turmoil continued until the second generation.

Zia, 78, now lives under house arrest and her BNP continues to face increasing challenges from Hasina and her ruling dispensation with the mass arrest of her politicians.

The situation sparked protests and the BNP decided to boycott the elections again, paving the way once again for Hasina.

“The government claims to be committed to free and fair elections with diplomatic partners, while state authorities are simultaneously filling prisons with political opponents of the ruling Awami League,” said Julia Bleckner, senior Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch, in a statement in November.

“A free election is impossible when the government stifles freedom of expression and systematically disables the opposition, critics and activists through arbitrary detention, enforced disappearances, harassment and intimidation,” Bleckner added.

However, the country – which aspires to become a middle-income country by 2031 – is experiencing an era of economic growth. Much of this is due to the apparel manufacturing industry, which accounts for 35.1% of Bangladesh's annual gross domestic product, according to the US Department of Commerce.

“Since its emergence, Bangladesh has always had political instability, but it has managed to have a very good growth rate,” said Sreeradha Dutta, professor of international affairs at OP Jindal Global University and author of “Bangladesh on a New Journey – Moving Beyond Regional Identity ”.

She also added that the country is building strong relationships with its main neighbors in the region.

“Therefore, regardless of who the leader is, the same development models will be adopted because Bangladesh aspires to be something much greater than it currently is.”

Pakistan

Ruled for much of its 76 years by political dynasties or military institutions, no democratically elected leader has ever completed a full five-year term since Pakistan gained independence.

In recent years, the country of 230 million people has seen the all-too-familiar mix of political instability and militant attacks creep in alongside a particularly acute economic crisis that has been brutal for both middle- and low-income families.

Imran Khan, the country's former prime minister and arguably its most popular figurehead, is languishing behind bars, accused of fraud and facing charges for revealing state secrets – leaving him unable to run in the upcoming elections in February.

Khan, who was ousted from power in a parliamentary vote of no confidence last year, says the charges against him are politically motivated and designed to prevent him from running in elections, an allegation authorities deny.

Television stations are banned from broadcasting Khan's speeches and many of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party colleagues have been arrested.

In October, Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan's fugitive former prime minister, returned to the South Asian country after nearly four years of self-exile, avoiding arrest and shaking up the country's already tense political scene and leaving many to believe that he is running for the top seat once again.

Meanwhile, the country faces mounting challenges – from economic uncertainty and frequent militant attacks to climate catastrophes that put millions of people at risk – setting the stage for a difficult road to recovery for its new leadership.

“Political and economic uncertainty go hand in hand,” said Fahd Humayun, assistant professor of political science and Neubauer faculty member in the political science department at Tufts University.

“And any government that comes to power through suspect elections will not only likely be in a weak position and dependent on the military for its political survival, it will also be unlikely to attract much-needed capital flows.”

India

Often considered the world's greatest experiment in democracy, India is expected to go to the polls in the spring in a mammoth election that will likely see Prime Minister Narendra Modi secure a rare third term in power.

The populist leader of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has tightened his grip on India's democratic institutions in a way not seen since the 1970s, when Indira Gandhi ruled the country with an iron fist, pushing it toward autocracy. .

But on the world stage, India has never been more significant.

Modi, whose calendar this year has included diplomatic trips to Australia and the United States, presents himself as a statesman who is consolidating the country as a modern superpower. And 2023 was a remarkable year for India's 1.4 billion people.

This year saw it overtake China to become the world's most populous nation, while the year before it overtook its former colonial ruler, Britain, to become the world's fifth-largest economy.

In August, India made history by softly landing a rover on the Moon, becoming the fourth nation in the world to achieve such a feat – and launched its first spacecraft dedicated to studying the Sun weeks later.

The country hosted the Group of 20 (G20) in September, presenting New Delhi with an opportunity to extend its leadership beyond the country's borders at a time of growing political turmoil.

However, since its first election nearly a decade ago, critics have also said that the once secular and democratic founding ethos of the world's largest democracy is crumbling at alarming speed, with minorities feeling persecuted by the policies. majority of the BJP and any criticism of the government faces censure and severe punishment.

Facing Modi is a newly formed alliance of 26 political parties known as INDIA, which includes the country's main opposition, the Indian National Congress.

But in its most recent assessment of voter sentiment, the Congress Party lost three of four regional votes in key state elections in December, giving a boost to Modi and his BJP.

As elections approach, analysts say Indian politics remain unpredictable and much could change as parties prepare to campaign in the coming months.

“People hope that there will be a challenge to Modi, that the opposition parties will be able to act together. This dream that seemed possible three months ago now seems more difficult,” said C. Raja Mohan, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, during a recent conversation with Asia Society.

“But even six months is a long time in politics.”

Sri Lanka

Almost two years ago, Sri Lanka's then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa was forced to flee his country after angry protesters stormed his residence, blaming him for the country's worst economic crisis in 73 years.

It was a remarkable moment for a protest movement that has thrust the bankrupt nation of 22 million people into the global spotlight after inflation soared and foreign exchange reserves dwindled, leaving millions of people unable to afford food, fuel and medicine.

Rajapaksa resigned from his post, paving the way for current president Ranil Wickremesinghe to take over.

In elections scheduled before September, Wickremesinghe is expected to run for a second term, months after he helped secure a much-needed loan from the International Monetary Fund and made sweeping budget reforms to ensure financial growth.

Sri Lanka has not held a general election since 2018 and Wickremesinghe has repeatedly postponed the polls due to the economic crisis.

As the economy – and the country's people – recover, the date for the elections has not yet been announced and it remains to be seen whether 2024 will be the year in which the country's people decide on their future leader.