Optima Bank raised the target price for the share of Motor Oil to 19.10 euros from 18 euros previously, maintaining the “purchase” recommendation.
Optima says that in its baseline scenario it expects a gradual improvement in Motor Oil’s “net” margin from $ 6.3 a barrel in 2020 to $ 8.7 a barrel in 2023 and then a $ 7.9 mid-cycle margin. the barrel in 2025.
At the same time, he adds that the company follows in a timely and effective manner the international trends of investments in petroleum products with high value added margins, which are expected to be a determining factor for consumption during the transition phase to the Green Agreement, while diversifying its sources. revenues from the energy sector, integrating activities and gradually adopting a lower carbon footprint with the expansion of the Renewable Energy sector.
Optima expects Motor Oil to show “adjusted” EBITDA of € 420 million in 2021, up 25% year-on-year, while estimating a further increase in EBITDA of 28% in 2022 to € 536 million, and by 12 % in 2023, at 600 million euros.
He estimates that adjusted net profit will more than double to € 164 million (up from a previous estimate of € 155 million), and increase by 38% in 2022 and 12% in 2023 to € 227 million and € 267 million respectively. .
Finally, free cash flows are expected to recover to 267 million euros in 2022 and 276 million euros in 2023, but also to reduce the group’s net debt from 1.4 billion euros in 2021 to 1 billion euros in 2024.