NATO is in a race against time to save itself from major embarrassment.

NATO officials are in a race against time to avoid the embarrassment of seeing the alliance miss its own stated goal of admitting Sweden by July 11.

Both Sweden and its neighbor Finland declared their intention to join the organization through its open-door policy in May last year, just weeks after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine.

Finland was finally accepted in April this year, doubling the alliance border with Russia, but Sweden’s membership is currently blocked.

Sweden has a permanent delegation to NATO and is considered a close partner of the alliance, which means that joining should be relatively straightforward.

So why is Sweden blocked?

The problem is Turkey – a strategically important member due to its geographic location in the Middle East and Europe, and the alliance’s second-largest military power – which is blocking Sweden’s membership for a number of reasons.

More importantly, this nation claims that Sweden allows members of recognized Kurdish terrorist groups to operate in Sweden, most notably the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Sweden changed its terrorism laws earlier this year, making it a crime to be part of these groups, although it remains unclear whether that is enough for Ankara.

Turkey also claims that the Swedish government has been complicit in far-right protests, where people burned copies of the Koran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm.

More recently, Turkey said it wants Sweden to act after Swedish lawmakers projected the PKK flag on the parliament building in Stockholm in protest against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s re-election on Sunday.

A spokesman for the Swedish parliament acknowledged that people had projected images onto the side of the building, but had no specific evidence about what was projected or who was responsible, according to Reuters.

Finally, there are concerns about how willing Erdogan is to describe himself as a friend of Putin. Shortly before being re-elected, he told the CNN that he and the Russian leader share a “special relationship”.

NATO officials and people within the Swedish government are now concerned that missing the July 11 deadline – the date of their next official summit in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius – would send a dangerous message to the alliance’s opponents. This includes Russia and, though far from the North Atlantic, North Korea and China.

“If it is lost, it tells people like Putin that there is a weak link in the western alliance. That gives them time and space to cause problems,” a NATO diplomat told the CNN . “This could be anything from cyberattacks to funding and encouraging more Koran burnings to cause division in Sweden.”

An Eastern European diplomat told CNN that, in addition to “encouraging the enemies” of NATO, any delay risks “giving a sense of Erdogan’s power over the alliance”.

The diplomat added that “Erdogan will seize the moment to squeeze every drop out of this situation and throw the ball to Sweden – making it hostage to its (own) anti-terror laws.”

Officials in most NATO countries are optimistic that a deal can be reached before July, but are aware that it could come with an associated price.

Several officials point to the way Erdogan struck a deal with the European Union, which awarded Turkey six billion euros (R$ 32.3 billion), among other perks, in exchange for Turkey taking in Syrian refugees who were on their way to Europe. .

European officials have repeatedly said that Erdogan knew he had Brussels over a barrel, as he could effectively “flood” Europe with refugees at will.

deal to be done

What could NATO allies give Erdogan to change his mind about Sweden?

For starters, Turkey wants the US Congress to approve the purchase of domestically manufactured F-16 fighter jets. While US officials are reluctant to openly link the issue of Sweden and the F-16, officials say that behind the scenes there is an obvious deal to be done.

Diplomats are also aware that Turkey’s economy is in trouble, with rising inflation and a collapse in the value of its currency against the dollar, and that both the US and EU currently have sanctions imposed on the country.

While there is room for a deal to be made – and Sweden’s pro-joining allies have leverage – there are some issues that could cause July 11 to come and go without NATO getting what it wants.

The first is Erdogan’s unpredictability. Sunday’s election was the closest he has come to losing power in 20 years, which allies fear means he may double down on Sweden when it comes to his anti-terror policy.

Sweden is unlikely to introduce anything that looks as authoritarian as Erdogan would probably like to see, especially when it comes to the Kurds; at this point, the only resolution could be for Erdogan to claim the changes Sweden has already made to its terror laws as a personal victory and move on.

The second is that Turkey is not the only fly in the ointment: Hungary is also opposed to Sweden’s entry into NATO.

These two issues, on some level, interact with each other: if Erdogan were to accept Sweden’s anti-terror laws as sufficient – just for Hungary to block all of this risks making him look weak by comparison, European officials fear.

For their part, pro-Sweden allies – including the US and UK, arguably NATO’s two most influential members – are doubling up on July 11 and offering assurances to Sweden that it is their priority, no matter what. what Turkey does.

Sweden’s accession to NATO would be the latest in a long line of good news for the alliance since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Officials were surprised by the level of unity in the alliance since the start of the war and were delighted by renewed pledges of defense spending and alliance strengthening.

Russia launched its war in the first place in part due to NATO expansion, a movement that shows no signs of slowing down, with Ukraine now also looking to join the alliance.

Even the Japanese are switching to NATO, with the country’s foreign minister telling the CNN earlier this month that it is in talks to open the first NATO liaison office in Asia.

Despite all the talk about NATO facing what French President Emmanuel Macron called “brain death” not too long ago, it is undeniable that the alliance has a renewed sense of purpose and is confident about its future.

This is precisely why the authorities are so concerned about Turkey’s veto of Sweden’s entry into NATO’s own calendar. Just as a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, an alliance is only as strong as its last act of unity.

In the modern world of diplomacy, signals and subtexts are very important. And while it may seem insignificant exactly when Sweden joins or does not join NATO, Turkey giving the alliance’s enemies the slightest sign that members might be caught would, officials believe, undo months of good work that brought the alliance closer to what it is. at any other time. again in recent memory.