Yesterday, February 2, in Russia, opposition leader Alexei Navalny was sentenced to three and a half years in prison. His poisoning, arrest and landing is a signal to all Russians: “Don’t rock the boat, otherwise it will be worse with you,” the respondents say. LIGA.net analysts. At the same time, they are confident that the Putin regime is only creating problems for itself with the public and the security forces, whose influence has grown significantly.
How did the trial of Navalny go, what his arrest means and how events in Russia can develop – I figured out LIGA.net.
WHAT HAPPENED. On February 2, a meeting was held in the Moscow City Court to replace the suspended sentence of Alexei Navalny with a real one in the case of the Yves-Rocher company: in 2014, Navalny and his brother were found guilty of money laundering and fraud. Alexey received a suspended sentence. He denies guilt, calling the case political persecution. The ECHR recognized the verdict of the Russian court as unfair: the Russian Federation even paid Navalny about 22,000 euros, but did not cancel the decision.
The prosecution motivated the demand “by violating the rules of the probationary period; free movement in Germany and playing sports”: Navalny was allegedly not noted, and his whereabouts after September 24, 2020 were unknown (September 23, he was discharged from a Berlin hospital). The absurdity of the situation is added by the fact that the oppositionist ended up in Berlin due to poisoning with poison from the Novichok family: officers of the FSB of the Russian Federation tried to kill him, follows from the investigation by Bellingcat. The politician assures that after being discharged from the hospital, he underwent outpatient treatment, which he notified the authorities about.
The prosecutor’s office is confident: Navalny “maliciously evaded duties.” The politician himself says that the maniacal obstinacy with which the state demands him to jail is dictated by Putin’s “hatred and fear”. As a result, the court sentenced Navalny to three and a half years in prison. When the court passed the verdict, the streets of Moscow were filled with several thousand protesters. At the headquarters of the politician, they urged them to go to Manezhnaya Square, but the police did not allow them to do this – people were severely detained and beaten. More than 1,400 people were detained throughout Russia.
Attack on journalist Fyodor Khudorkomov. He tried to find out why riot police beat another person and eventually provoked their aggression.
Video: Andrey Novichkov / @sotavision. pic.twitter.com/B3aQMQCUm4
– SOTA (@SotaVision) February 2, 2021
WHY IS IT IMPORTANT. Developed democracies immediately reacted to the court’s decision, calling for the release of Navalny. Amnesty International believes that in revenge on the opposition, the Russian authorities have destroyed the remnants of justice: “The verdict shows the true face of the Russian authorities, who seem to intend to arrest anyone who dares to speak out against their crimes.”
Russia clearly does not want to respect human rights and freedoms itself. This means that Russia needs to be made to respect them, says Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba
Ukraine also supported the opposition, despite his words about the illegally occupied Crimea (in the fall of 2014, he said that “Crimea will remain part of the Russian Federation and will never again become part of Ukraine in the foreseeable future”). Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba calls what is happening in the Russian Federation a new “record” of arbitrariness: “Russia clearly does not want to respect human rights and freedoms itself. This means that Russia needs to be made to respect them. This is the task of the international community.”
The politically motivated court decision against Navalny is not only further evidence of the continuing “tightening of the screws”, but also a gesture for the West and all Russians. “This is a signal to those who watched the video and found out that Putin has a palace, heard something about the protests. These citizens were told:” Don’t rock the boat, otherwise it will be the same or worse with you, “he says. LIGA.net professor at the University of Helsinki, political scientist Vladimir Gelman.
The main consequence of these events in the Russian Federation, he believes, is the strengthening of the security apparatus, which “is becoming the main support of the authorities”: “The country’s political leadership is increasingly becoming a hostage of security officials, further aggravation of this situation is risky for them. Sooner or later, but the security apparatus can get rid of political leadership and try to steer yourself. ”
This prison term is becoming a symbol of the omnipotence of the current government, says political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky
“The landing of Navalny is a continuation of the cleaning of the political field,” says LIGA.net Ivan Preobrazhensky, candidate of political sciences, expert on Central and Eastern Europe. In his opinion, while the totalitarian system is being completed in Russia, it is necessary that “society does not have time to come to its senses, and there are always reasons to intimidate it with force.” “This story will turn for Russia into targeted sanctions against Putin’s entourage and his” wallets “, but the conflict with the West will not become deeper because of economic interests. authorities”.
The regime in Russia is doomed. People were horrified to see his true face, says Russian historian Andrei Zubov
Putin’s actions are dictated by fear of losing power, but now he has only worsened the situation, Russian historian Andrei Zubov told LIGA.net. “He sees Navalny as a real rival. For 20 years they have been trampling the clearing so that there is no alternative. Now any person in Russia, whether he likes Alexei or not, will say that there is an alternative to Putin – this is Navalny.”
“The regime in Russia is doomed, and people were horrified to see its true face,” says the historian. “Lukashenka is holding on, because Putin helped him. But no one will support the Russian Federation like that … Putin is becoming useless. People who thought that thanks to him they saved money, influence and power, they realized that he was depriving them of this because of his odiousness … They will depart from him, and without supporters he can do nothing. ”
WHAT’S NEXT. Companions of Navalny from the Anti-Corruption Foundation promise to continue organizing protests in support of the politician. His lawyers will appeal the court decision. How successful their actions will be is hard to say. Navalny should be released from prison in the fall of 2023 – that is, by the start of the presidential election campaign, which will be held in the spring of 2024.
The magic of timing, like the magic of elections, means nothing in Russia, explains Zubov
Zubov believes: “Navalny will be released either much ahead of schedule, or much later, if the people cannot release him and Putin remains in power.” “The magic of timing, like the magic of elections, does not mean anything in Russia. It is important who will win this struggle: a society striving to restore democracy, or a dictator who wants to make his rule eternal by handing it over to his loved ones after death.”
Navalny’s plans to participate in the next presidential elections are still unknown. “If there are free elections, it is difficult to say who will win. Obviously, Putin will no longer participate in such a race. If there are no free elections, then Navalny will not be allowed close to victory,” Zubov said.
Gelman is of a similar opinion: “There is definitely a chance to get rid of Putin. But it is connected with other processes. If competitive elections take place in Russia, then Putin will most likely not participate in them. If it turns out that the regime will survive quietly and calmly until 2024, he will try to hold elections without real competition. ”
Navalny understands that there is no point in focusing on elections, says Preobrazhensky, since this is a fiction: “Putin will not give up power voluntarily, and if he is going to organize a transit, he will do it until 2024 … In authoritarian and totalitarian regimes, power is taken then when it is ripe, not when elections are scheduled. ” At the same time, he clarifies that Navalny has a chance to become president, because he is the most active and well-known politician after Putin.
Experts disagree on how the protest activity will develop in connection with the term of Navalny: some say that it is difficult to predict the reaction, others are sure that the rallies will intensify.
“The Maidan in Ukraine began with the beating of students in November 2013. And then their older brothers, parents and relatives spoke out. I think the same will await us,” Zubov says.
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