Negative risks for the Dollar – Scotiabank

The dollar remains firm, but gains against major pairs are relatively minor. Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank, analyzes the outlook for the dollar.

The correlation of the Dollar with yields and spreads is lower than in August and September

Although the Dollar remains firm overall, it closed the week lower through Friday in terms of the DXY Dollar Index, and late in the week the index quotes were technically soft despite the weak risk environment. Price developments today echo that trend to some extent, and overall the dollar is less correlated with yields and spreads than it was in August and September.

The Dollar remains very overbought on the long-term (weekly) chart and price developments at the beginning of the month suggest that the DXY index has peaked. In my view, these two technical factors suggest negative risks for the USD.

Source: Fx Street

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