Spain suffered in 2020 the biggest economic collapse of all the developed economies in the world. And, also, of many others that are not so. This has been certified by the OECD, an organization that this Tuesday published its new world forecasts and shows that the 11% that Spain’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) collapsed exceeds the fall of any of the major economies in the Eurozone. But it is also above the recoil of South Africa (-7,2%), Mexico (-8.5%) and even the 10% that the battered economy of Argentina.
A dubious merit that is undoubtedly directly related to the composition of Spain’s GDP and the existing dependence on the tourism and hospitality. However, the government’s own management also had an important influence on this figure, with measures against the pandemic that were taken late in comparison with the numbers of contagions and the decisions of other countries. And when the Spanish economy performed comparatively better in the last part of the year, the worst data from other nations Europeans weren’t exactly helpful either.
The result is that 11% that, in addition to the comparisons already made, pales the 6.8% that the Eurozone as a whole collapsed. In addition to the aforementioned fall of Argentina, it is only close to 9.9% that the United Kingdom sank after following an initial strategy in which it tried to achieve a certain group immunity and, later, he applied harsh confinements.
The OECD document also contains a noticeable improvement in the forecasts for Spain, as well as in practically all the economies analyzed. In the specific case of the Spanish economy, the body led by Ãngel GurrÃa foresees a rebound in the 5.7% in 2021 and 4.8% in 2022. This is an increase of seven and eight tenths, respectively.
But even so, the improvement leaves the forecast very far from the rebound of 9.8% that the Government reflected in the General State Budgets (PGE), and also of the 7% that the Vice President of Economic Affairs always tries to defend, Nadia CalviÃ ± o, in her “inertial scenario”.
The person in charge of the Government has wanted to emphasize that the revision of the forecasts is “good news” and that they place “Spain is at the forefront of growth forecasts for the European Union”, thus ignoring that this rebound will take place after a substantially deeper debacle.” All the organizations are aligning themselves in the same direction in terms of forecasting strong economic growth in our country, especially after the second half the year, “he added.
For the whole Eurozone the upward revision is smaller, largely given that for both France and Italy the OECD has made slight downward revisions. Thus, the euro zone will grow by 3.9% this year and 3.8% next, while the world economy will rebound this year by 5.6%, which represents a notable increase of 1.4 points. A good part of that best estimate rests on the increase of up to three points that the agency decrees for the United States, a country that will grow 6.5% this year.
Among the reasons that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development emphasizes in order to create a better economic context, the “deployment of effective vaccines”;” the announcement of additional tax measures in some countries “, especially the United States, and the fact that economies are being able to better manage measures to deal with the virus.