Its leader Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid may be able to form a new government with other political parties, which like him want to turn the page Netanyahu, even if they share nothing or almost nothing ideologically.
But which parties could his coalition include? Could they overcome their ideological differences so that their government would last? What impact will this new group have on relations with the Palestinians?
Is the “change” coalition ready?
Lapid has until Wednesday at 23.59 local time (Greek time) to win the support of 61 lawmakers, a deadline for claiming a successor to Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been prime minister for more than a decade.
Taking office in early May, Lapid currently counts on the support of 57 lawmakers: in addition to his traditional left-wing and center-right allies (51 votes), he allied Sunday with Naftali Bennett’s radical right-wing Yamina party.
He won seven seats in the March parliamentary elections, but one of his executives has already announced that he will not run in the camp against Netanyahu.
To form the “coalition for change”, according to the expression used by the opponents of the outgoing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Lapid must therefore find four more votes, possibly in the Arab-Israeli parties, which, however, have not been clearly positioned.
He acknowledged today that “there are still many obstacles” before the formation of a government: “This is our first test, to see if we can find smart compromises in the coming days to achieve a more important goal.”
With which parties?
In addition to his party, Lapid is backed by the left (the Avon Labor Party and the Merez) and the retired General Beni Ganz Blue-White formation, in which he served for some time.
However, he rallied supporters on the right, starting with Avigdor Lieberman’s secular nationalist party (Israel, Our Home) and the formation of “New Hope” by Gideon Saar, a former Likud tenor of the historic Israeli right-wing party.
On Sunday, the radical right, under the banner of Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party, finally rallied into this coalition.
Can it be sustainable?
Liberal or socialist inspirations, for or against the creation of a Palestinian state, the place of religion in the state: on these fundamental issues, the parties united under Lapid diverge everywhere.
But everyone is “sincerely convinced that Netanyahu (accused of corruption in several cases) is a danger to the country, that he can no longer serve as prime minister because he puts his personal interests above those of the country,” he explained. Jonathan Reinhold, Professor of Political Science at Bar-Ilan University.
To prevent the collapse of their government, they could at least initially choose a “consensus program” focusing on the social and economic recovery following the pandemic and addressing shortcomings in the health, education and transport systems, issues on which they agree, says Reinhold.
“Challenges will arise when an event upsets the base” of each party, the professor said, noting Israeli settlement activity in the Palestinian territories. The Israeli left is calling for the creation of a Palestinian state, while the right wants to assert Israeli sovereignty in the occupied West Bank and stresses the threat of partial annexation.
The only link between these “incredible approaches” is to prevent Netanyahu from “returning if he is the leader of the opposition,” said Dennis Harbit, a political science professor at Tel Aviv Open University.
And about the peace process with the Palestinians?
Negotiations with the Palestinians have remained stagnant since 2014.
For Jonathan Reinhold, the “coalition of change” is not expected to commit to a resumption of the peace process, mainly due to differences between the parties on this issue.
“They will agree to respect the status quo,” the analyst said.
“However, they must manage the conflict so that there is no outbreak of violence as recently,” between Israel and Hamas from May 10 to 21.
And in the event of a new outbreak of violence, however, they will be able to rely, according to the analyst, on the “Israeli consensus” that has prevailed in all the wars since 2000. “They will have difficulty but will be able to overcome their differences.” said Reinhold.
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