New barrage of positive reports: Wood and BofA re-launch their estimates for growth in Greece

Her Eleftherias Kourtali

A new round of upgrades to the estimates of international companies in terms of the course of the Greek economy seems to open in November, at a time when the average forecast of analysts internationally “speaks” for growth of 8% and significantly higher than forecast of the government but also of the institutions. As things stand, Greece is expected to record the highest growth rates this year, with a difference, compared to the rest of the eurozone.

Thus, at 7.5% Wood raises its forecast for growth in Greece this year, while at 4% it places growth for 2022 and at 5% in 2023. As he points out, according to the average market estimates, Growth in Greece this year will be around an impressive 8%.

It is noted that in its previous report in September, Wood had raised the growth rate of Greece this year to 6.5% from 3.6% before, due to the impressive course of GDP in the second quarter, a result which as he mentioned was very higher than market expectations. As the house noted, this GDP growth puts Greece at a higher level than before the pandemic (at quarterly, seasonally adjusted levels), and on a good path to GDP growth well above 6% in 2021. Now The data coming from the front of tourism and the economic climate, lead to a new upgrade of Wood’s estimates, something that BofA is doing and that other companies are expected to follow.

Regarding the inflation, which Wood characterizes as a significant risk for the course of GDP both in the EU countries and in the USA, he estimates that this year in Greece it will be 0.9% from -1.2 % in 2021. At the same time, it forecasts a jump in inflation in the country in 2022 to 3.7% while it estimates that it will then decline to 1.8% in 2023.

At the same time, the Bank of America is significantly upgrading its estimates for the development of Greece this year in its current report, placing GDP growth now at 8.6%, from 5.6% before, while in 2022 it estimates that it will move to 3.8% and in 2023 to 2.5%.

It is worth noting that the American bank places Greece with a difference in the first places in the eurozone in terms of economic performance this year, as 8.6% of Greece follows 6.7% of France, 6.6% of Ireland in 6.3% of Italy and 6% of Belgium.

In terms of inflation, BofA also sees a significant increase from now on, but more conservative than the one seen by Wood. Specifically, he estimates that inflation in Greece will move to 0.4%, in 2022 will increase to 1.9% and in 2023 will reach 1.2%.

Following the data for October inflation and GDP for the third quarter, BofA is upgrading its forecasts for the euro area as well, estimating that it will move to 5.1%, 3.6% and 2.0% for in 2021, 2022 and 2023 respectively, while inflation at 2.5%, 2.4% and 1.6%.

He points out that it takes time for GDP to heal, with the “easy” part of the recovery already recorded, as the reopening of the economy is almost complete. Thus, the pace of recovery will slow down significantly next, with high energy costs and rising inflation hitting consumers.