New batches of Bayraktar arrive in Kyiv from Turkey

By David Hambling

In Fidonisi, heavy military operations took place last weekend: among others, a bombardment by Ukrainian fighters and a barrage of strikes by Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aircraft, which resulted in the sinking of two patrol boats and an amphibious carrier. In addition, the Bayraktar TB2 neutralized a Mi-8 helicopter while transporting Russian troops to the island. However, Russia may be more concerned about a number that appeared in the video taken by one of the drones: a registration number indicating that it was a brand new drone found directly from the production line in Ukraine.

The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 is the most talked about drone of the era. Although the New Yorker magazine headline on Monday, “The Turkish drone changed the nature of the war,” provoked strong reactions, its previous successes in Libya, Syria, and especially in Nagorno-Karabakh, where it dismantled hundreds of Armenian armored vehicles, provided by Russia showed that Bayraktar could play an important role in Ukraine’s defense. Many experts (myself included) doubted that Bayraktar could prevail over Russia’s air-to-air and surface-to-air missile systems at Moscow. But it soon turned out that we were wrong: on February 28, I stressed that Russia’s inability to block the Bayraktar would signal greater problems for its military machine.

Certainly, Russia hates Turkish drones and “inflates” the number of Bayraktars it has shot down;

But some Bayraktars are being shot down, and Ukraine’s initial fleet of 36 drones is steadily dwindling, with at least seven casualties, according to the Oryx final report. Turkey continues to be neutral in this conflict, as it is heavily dependent on Russian gas and wheat, and has positioned itself as a mediator, while the government (unlike many other NATO member states) does not send weapons. in Ukraine. Ankara has declined to comment on whether it allows private arms sales to Ukraine. It was therefore concluded that no more Bayraktar would be surrendered. Hence the US proposal to supply Ukraine with MQ-9 Reapers or other types of drones in order to strengthen its fleet.

However, an analyst with the Twitter account @ameliaairheart mentioned the following interest in the attacks in Fidonisi: Bayraktar’s video feed, which is normally “cleaned” to remove digital identification information, remained intact, which means that the attack was carried out by Ground Control Station 13, operated by a Bayraktar with registration number T253.

The analyst then compared this entry with flight data from Turkey, which showed that the TB2 T253 made a test flight south of the Baykar test facility near Keşan, Turkey, on March 21 ─ just six days ago. weeks.

“This suggests that Ukraine is getting TB2 directly from the production line,” he said.

#Ukraine: More footage has come from the famous Snake Island – this time, as we believe, two more Russian Project 03160 “Raptor” patrol boats were hit by Ukrainian Bayraktar TB-2 drones. Both of them appear to be at least significantly damaged. pic.twitter.com/a5iWvyFqY8

– 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) May 8, 2022

Another analyst, @Intelassess, reports that a Bayraktar with registration number T261 has also been located in Ukraine and that the T258-T262 has been tested in Keşan. Drones are usually delivered in batches of six; this may mean that Ukraine may have received at least two such batches since the start of the war. Other analysts have identified recent drone flights that appear to be coming from the Baykar plant to Poland.

Of course, the video data may be false, or Ukraine may simply modify the registration numbers that appear to confuse Russia over how many Bayraktars it has left.

Even before the war, this was a sensitive issue for Turkey. In October 2021, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu asked Ukraine not to mention Turkey in terms of drone imports: “If a country has bought a weapon from us or from another country, then this weapon can not be described as “Turkish or Russian or Ukrainian,” he said.

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Turkish government has stated that pre-war sales to Ukraine were a private agreement and that Ankara had no involvement.

“These are private companies and pre-war purchases of unmanned aircraft,” a senior Turkish official told Reuters.

So far we have no indications that Turkey has continued to supply Ukraine with Bayraktar. But if the latest analysis is correct, then Baykar is sending new drones to Kyiv, which it is building as fast as it can, apparently with Ankara’s tacit approval.

President Zelensky has stated that the Bayraktars alone do not play a decisive role in the outcome of hostilities and that missiles and artillery are vital. However, drones are a significant advantage when Ukrainian Air Force fighters can make minimal daily expenditures.

If Ukraine has actually received 12 – or more – unmanned aircraft, then it may now have more Bayraktars than when the clashes began. Bayraktar is now setting fire to oil depots in Russia across the border, making history as the first armed drones to sink Russian naval vessels, sinking the Russian Navy’s flagship in the Black Sea and destroying submarine systems. they would overthrow them.

It seems that Russia’s problem with Bayraktar will get worse.