New Hampshire primaries prove moderates' rejection of Donald Trump

Former President of the United States Donald Trump handily won the primaries in the state of New Hampshire, taking a very important step towards guaranteeing his more than likely nomination as the Republican party candidate for November's presidential elections.

The results of the primaries between him and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, however, also confirmed the high rejection of the former president by moderate voters.

Unlike the Iowa caucuses, where Trump defeated Haley across all socioeconomic groups, in New Hampshire he lost among the wealthiest, most educated, least religious and those who qualify as “moderate” or “liberal.”

The data shows that the former president has consolidated support among the most radical and conservative voters, but has difficulties with sectors that are critical of his behavior and extremist positions.

And the rejection of this public increases even more due to the 91 criminal charges to which he faces in four different judicial processes – including that of involvement in the attempted coup d'état on January 6, 2021, when a mob invaded the Capitol, headquarters of the American Congress.

In New Hampshire, voters who declared themselves independent were also able to vote in the Republican primary. This is precisely the segment that will decide the dispute between Trump and President Joe Biden, who is expected to be the Democratic candidate.

Whoever manages to attract more votes from moderate centrists, especially in key states, should win the election. And the rejection of Trump in the segment already worries the Republican campaign a lot.

Vote of “moderates”

A survey carried out at the request of CNN during voting in New Hampshire showed that Donald Trump lost to NIkki Haley by 72% to 25% of the votes among voters who ideologically declare themselves “moderate”.

Among the “conservatives”, the situation was reversed and the former president beat his opponent by 71% to 27%. With the “liberals”, as predicted, Trump had little chance and lost by 85% to 8%.

Haley beat the former president also among the most educated people: 53% against 45% among those with a university degree; and 60% versus 36% among those with a master's or doctorate.

Trump had another defeat among people who have no religion and do not attend any worship: 50% against 47%. Among those who regularly attend religious services, he won by a large margin: 62% against 35% of the votes.

He also had a very significant vote among the poorest, who feel most excluded by the political and economic decisions of large centers, beating the former governor by 66% to 31% among those who earn a maximum of US$50,000 a year. And it lost among the richest, those earning more than US$100,000 a year, by 50% to 47%.

President Biden, however, also did not have good news on two specific points: the economy and immigration, the two biggest concerns among American voters.

According to the survey of CNN, 74% of all participants in the New Hampshire primary consider the status of the economy in the United States to be poor or very poor. Only 25% say the situation is good or very good.

And among the 30% of voters who consider immigration the country's biggest problem at the moment, Trump won by a landslide: 79% to 20%.

The presidential campaign should lead two octogenarian politicians to the final contest. And both will have many difficulties to face in order to win, precisely, centrist voters.