According to the latest Consensus Forecast from the New Zealand Institute for Economic Research (NZIER), the New Zealand economy is seen as resilient over the next year, but growth could be revised downwards for 2025 and 2026.
Additional comments
Given that more fixed-term mortgages will appreciate in the next twelve months, the moderating effect of interest rate increases on economic activity will become more apparent in the coming years.
Household consumption has been revised downward beyond 2024.
Despite a strong starting point for export growth, export growth forecasts have been revised downward for years after 2023.
Consensus forecasts for GDP growth show mixed prospects for the coming years. Annual GDP growth for the years ending March 2023 and March 2024 has been revised upwards to 3.1% and 1.1%, respectively. Nevertheless, growth forecasts beyond 2024 have been revised downward.
The annual CPI is expected to moderate to 3.4% in 2024 and fall to 2.2% in 2026still above the midpoint of the RBNZ inflation target (2%).
The outlook for interest rates has been revised upwards again throughout the projection horizon.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
