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NFP: Aiming for a 675,000 jump in payroll

Next Friday is Nonfarm Payroll Day. The market consensus shows an increase in March payrolls of 655,000. Wells Fargo analysts they expect a reading of 675,000 and the unemployment rate to drop to 6.0%.

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“While many parts of the economy have recovered quickly, the job market has taken longer to recover. During his Senate testimony this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell responded to a question about the fact that the Fed’s own forecast showed only a gradual decline in the unemployment rate. He explained how a wave of hiring later this year would likely result in an increase in the participation rate as discouraged workers returned to the workforce. “

“After the sector was devastated by the pandemic, leisure and hospitality will likely be the biggest driver of job growth this year, and we suspect we can see the first glimpse of that when the March job number hits the wire on Friday morning. In fact, we are targeting a 675,000 jump in payrolls for the month, and we expect to see the unemployment rate drop to 6.0%. It may be too early for job growth to draw more people back into the workforce, although we agree with the Fed that strong job growth could be accompanied by a comparatively steady decline in the unemployment rate. ” .

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