Member of the board of the European Central Bank (ECB), Robert Holzmann stated that “there is no convincing reason for pessimism about global development”, despite the unfavorable scenario.
Holzmann spoke during the 2022 European Conference on Economic Integration, talking about the impacts of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the European Union.
“As much as it seems impossible today, it is still possible and necessary for the West and a new Russia to find a way to peacefully coexist, while securing the needs of both Russia and Ukraine,” he argues.
“A new era of economic cooperation can once again release a peace dividend for the global economy.”
Even with an optimistic long-term perspective, Holzmann points out that winter should be a difficult period for Europe. The economy must suffer the consequences of the war, leveraging inflationary pressures.
“Economic activity is likely to stagnate in the winter as gas supply disruptions and rising energy prices are on the rise,” he explains.
Holzmann also predicts that the sanctions imposed by the EU on Russia should have a greater effect from 2023, when the country should mainly feel the embargo on technological products.
“Russian GDP should contract to 3.5% this year and a similar figure next year”, observes the specialist and adds that, in the medium term, Russia should also feel the lack of manpower, with thousands of enlisted men. in the army or leaving the country.
As for Ukraine, in the expert’s opinion, it should grow again in 2023.
Source: CNN Brasil
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