- Non -agricultural payrolls are expected to increase in 135,000 in March, after an increase of 151,000 reported in February.
- The US Labor Statistics Office will publish employment data on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
- The US labor data could impact the path of Fed’s interest rates, potentially affecting the action of the US dollar price.
Non -Agricultural Payroll (NFP) data from the United States (USA) will be published by the Office of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
Amid the increased recession risks induced by the tariff policies of US President Donald Trump and the fear of a commercial war in climbing, the details of the March Employment Report will be examined closely to evaluate the next movement of interest rates of the Federal Reserve (FED) and the performance of the US dollar (USD) in the short term.
Trump on Wednesday announced a 10% base tariff on most of the goods imported to the US, with much higher tariffs on products from dozen countries, including their main commercial partners – China, Japan and the European Union (EU).
What to expect from the next report of non -agricultural payrolls?
Economists expect non -agricultural payroll to increase in 135,000 jobs in March, after an increase of 151,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate (UER) is expected to remain 4.1% during the same period.
Meanwhile, the average hour per hour (AHE) is expected to be very observed salary inflation, increase in 3.8% year -on -year (yoy) in March, after a 4.0% growth in February.
After the March policy meeting, the FED maintained its reference policy rate in the 4.25%-4.50%range, but the updated quarterly projections of the bank, the so-called points graphic, indicated two interest rate cuts this year. The Fed also raised its inflation prognosis while reducing its growth and employment perspective due to the impact of Trump’s tariffs, feeding concerns about a possible stagflation in the US.
The president of the FED, Jerome Powell, at his press conference after politics, declared that “the uncertainty about policy changes and economic effects is high” due to US tariffs “” If the labor market weakens, we can loosen if necessary, “Powell said before adding quickly that” we will not have hurry to move in feats. “
Therefore, March employment data will probably be key to evaluating US labor market conditions, which could alter expectations about FED rate cuts this year. The markets are completely valuing the probable resumption of the Central Bank of the US Central Bank in June.
By arreating the March Employment Report, TD Securities analysts said: “It is likely that payrolls have lost a modest impulse in March in the midst of the growing uncertainty about the economic perspectives of the US and given the dismissals related to Doge.”
“We also hope that the unemployment rate will rise per second consecutive month to 4.2%,” they added.
How will the non -agricultural payrolls of March from the USA to EUR/USD affect?
The US dollar has been in the loser part against its main currency rivals due to the increased fears of a recession, mainly driven by the aggressive tariff policies of President Trump. Will the US NFP report help change the destination of the USD?
At the beginning of the week, the BLS reported that Jolts employment offers decreased to 7.56 million in February, from 7.76 million in January. The reading reached the lowest level since September 2024. Meanwhile, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) published data on Wednesday, which showed that the US private sector added 155,000 jobs in March, a considerable increase from the 84,000 reviewed upward in February and better than the 105,000 forecast.
That said, the bets are high as the publication of US employment data approaches, in the midst of increasing expectations that the Fed will need to opt for aggressive rate cuts following the economic repercussions of Trump’s tariffs.
Therefore, a disappointing labor market report, with an NFP reading below 120,000, could advance the expectations of a Fed fees in May in May. In this scenario, the USD is expected to see a new downward movement, taking the EUR/USD to the north. On the contrary, market participants could refrain from assessing a rate cut in May if NFP data offers a positive surprise with a reading above 150,000.
DHWANI MEHTA, main analyst of the Asian session at FXSTERET, offers a brief technical perspective for the EUR/USD:
“The main currency pair is negotiated near its highest level in seven months above the level of 1,1050, with the 14 -day relative force index (RSI), keeping within the overcompra region. This suggests that there is a margin for a new setback. Buyers seek acceptance above the psychological level of 1,1050 for a sustained upward trend. More to the north, the maximum of seven months of 1.114 proof.”
“In the event that the EUR/USD fails to stay above 1,1050, the immediate support will be in 1,0900. A daily closure below this support level could cause a simple mobile average (SMA) test (SMA) of 21 days in 1,0860. A deeper correction will probably challenge the 200 -day SMA in 1,0731.
Euro price this week
The lower table shows the percentage of euro change (EUR) compared to the main currencies this week. Euro was the strongest currency against the Australian dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -2.10% | -1.11% | -2.47% | -1.53% | 0.31% | -0.32% | -2.71% | |
| EUR | 2.10% | 1.12% | -0.36% | 0.62% | 2.55% | 1.85% | -0.58% | |
| GBP | 1.11% | -1.12% | -1.47% | -0.44% | 1.42% | 0.76% | -1.63% | |
| JPY | 2.47% | 0.36% | 1.47% | 0.96% | 2.90% | 2.24% | -0.33% | |
| CAD | 1.53% | -0.62% | 0.44% | -0.96% | 1.91% | 1.22% | -1.19% | |
| Aud | -0.31% | -2.55% | -1.42% | -2.90% | -1.91% | -0.66% | -3.04% | |
| NZD | 0.32% | -1.85% | -0.76% | -2.24% | -1.22% | 0.66% | -2.40% | |
| CHF | 2.71% | 0.58% | 1.63% | 0.33% | 1.19% | 3.04% | 2.40% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the euro of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the EUR (base)/USD (quotation).
US dollar FAQS
The US dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the “de facto” currency of a significant number of other countries where it is in circulation along with local tickets. According to data from 2022, it is the most negotiated currency in the world, with more than 88% of all global currency change operations, which is equivalent to an average of 6.6 billion dollars in daily transactions. After World War II, the USD took over the pound sterling as a world reserve currency.
The most important individual factor that influences the value of the US dollar is monetary policy, which is determined by the Federal Reserve (FED). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and promote full employment. Its main tool to achieve these two objectives is to adjust interest rates. When prices rise too quickly and inflation exceeds the 2% objective set by the Fed, it rises the types, which favors the price of the dollar. When inflation falls below 2% or the unemployment rate is too high, the Fed can lower interest rates, which weighs on the dollar.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more dollars and promulgate quantitative flexibility (QE). The QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is an unconventional policy measure that is used when the credit has been exhausted because banks do not lend each other (for fear of the default of the counterparts). It is the last resort when it is unlikely that a simple decrease in interest rates will achieve the necessary result. It was the weapon chosen by the Fed to combat the contraction of the credit that occurred during the great financial crisis of 2008. It is that the Fed prints more dollars and uses them to buy bonds of the US government, mainly of financial institutions. Which usually leads to a weakening of the US dollar.
The quantitative hardening (QT) is the reverse process for which the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvote the capital of the wallet values ​​that overcome in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US dollar.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
