- Non -agricultural payrolls are expected to increase in 130,000 in April, below the gain of 228,000 reported in March.
- The US Labor Statistics Office will publish employment data on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
- The US Employment Report could significantly impact the probabilities of a Fed feat cut in June, affecting the US dollar.
The US Labor Statistics Office (BLS) will publish the high impact data of non -agricultural payroll (NFP) for April on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
The April Employment Report will be critical to affirm a cut of interest rates of the Federal Reserve (FED) in June in the middle of the US trade agreements with its main Asian commercial partners and an unexpected economic contraction in the US in the first quarter of this year. Therefore, the data could have a strong impact on the performance of the US dollar (USD) in the short term.
In an interview at the Town Hall in Newsnation on Thursday morning, US President Donald Trump said he has “potential” trade agreements with India, South Korea and Japan and that there is a very good possibility of reaching an agreement with China.
What to expect from the next report of non -agricultural payrolls?
Economists expect non -agricultural payroll to show a gain of 130,000 jobs in April after registering a spectacular increase of 228,000 in March. It is expected that the unemployment rate (EU) will be maintained at 4.2% during the same period.
Meanwhile, an average hour (AHE) is expected to be a very observed salary inflation measure, increase 3.9% year -on -year (yoy) in April, after an increase of 3.8% in March.
When the imprisonment of the April Employment Report, TD Securities analysts said: “Employment growth will probably not show material deterioration signs in April despite the spectrum of high tariffs that impact economic conditions. In fact, we hope that the payrolls will be slowed closer to their stable state after the remarkable increase in the series in March.”
“The EU rate is expected to remain unchanged in 4.2%, while salary growth has probably lost some impulse, registering an increase of an intermensual 0.2% (MOM),” they added.
How will the non -agricultural payrolls of the US April/USD affect?
The US dollar seeks to extend its recovery against its main currency rivals as the relaxation of commercial tensions continues to support the feeling of risk, overcoming the negative impact of the important publications of economic data of the US this week.
The first estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the USA showed on Wednesday that the US economy was contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter, due to an increase in imports since US companies advanced purchases to advance to US tariffs.
Meanwhile, the underlying personal consumer price index (PCE), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.6% in March, below the 3% increase reported in February. Earlier on Wednesday, the ADP report showed that the payrolls of the US private sector increased by only 62,000 for the month, the smallest gain since July 2024, coming down from 147,000 in March and failing in the consensus prognosis of an increase of 108,000.
All these discouraging data of the US supported the possibility of a trimming of interest rates of 25 basic points (BPS) by the Fed in June, while a decision to maintain stable rates at the current levels is completely valued for the policy meeting next week. The markets continue to predict a total of four rates cuts for the end of the year, a possible indication that the Fed will prioritize economic growth over inflation.
Last month, those responsible for the Fed monetary policy were cautious about the perspectives of the US labor market. The president of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, said he was worried about possible dismissals caused by commercial uncertainty. In addition, the governor of the Fed, Christopher Waller, told Bloomberg that “I would not be surprised to see more dismissals, greater unemployment,” adding that “the easiest place to compensate for the costs of tariffs is cutting payrolls.”
In this context, April employment data will be examined closely in search of clarity on the US labor state and clues about future interest rate movements of the Fed.
A reading below the level of 100,000 could reinforce the relaxation prospects of the Fed, reviving the downward trend of the USD while raising the price of gold again towards historical maximums. In case of a surprise up with a reading above 200,000, gold could continue its corrective decline since the data could counteract the expectations of a rate cut in June.
DHWANI MEHTA, main analyst of the Asian session at FXSTERET, offers a brief technical perspective for the EUR/USD:
“The main currency pair threatens the simple mobile average (SMA) key of 21 days in 1,1256 in the prelude to the NFP confrontation. The 14 -day relative force index (RSI) points down while keeping above the midline, suggesting that the torque is at a critical point.”
“Buyers must defend the 21 -day SMA limit to keep the bullish bias. If that happens, a rebound cannot be discard of 1.1000 and the 50 -day SMA in 1,0956. “
US dollar last 7 days
The lower table shows the percentage of change of the US dollar (USD) compared to the main currencies last 7 days. American dollar was the strongest currency against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.05% | -0.55% | 0.59% | -0.46% | -0.38% | 0.31% | -0.49% | |
| EUR | 0.05% | -0.49% | 0.65% | -0.40% | -0.34% | 0.36% | -0.44% | |
| GBP | 0.55% | 0.49% | 1.13% | 0.09% | 0.16% | 0.86% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.59% | -0.65% | -1.13% | -1.06% | -0.98% | -0.34% | -1.05% | |
| CAD | 0.46% | 0.40% | -0.09% | 1.06% | 0.10% | 0.77% | -0.03% | |
| Aud | 0.38% | 0.34% | -0.16% | 0.98% | -0.10% | 0.70% | -0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.31% | -0.36% | -0.86% | 0.34% | -0.77% | -0.70% | -0.82% | |
| CHF | 0.49% | 0.44% | -0.06% | 1.05% | 0.03% | 0.10% | 0.82% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the US dollar of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the USD (base)/JPY (quotation).
US dollar FAQS
The US dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the “de facto” currency of a significant number of other countries where it is in circulation along with local tickets. According to data from 2022, it is the most negotiated currency in the world, with more than 88% of all global currency change operations, which is equivalent to an average of 6.6 billion dollars in daily transactions. After World War II, the USD took over the pound sterling as a world reserve currency.
The most important individual factor that influences the value of the US dollar is monetary policy, which is determined by the Federal Reserve (FED). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and promote full employment. Its main tool to achieve these two objectives is to adjust interest rates. When prices rise too quickly and inflation exceeds the 2% objective set by the Fed, it rises the types, which favors the price of the dollar. When inflation falls below 2% or the unemployment rate is too high, the Fed can lower interest rates, which weighs on the dollar.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more dollars and promulgate quantitative flexibility (QE). The QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is an unconventional policy measure that is used when the credit has been exhausted because banks do not lend each other (for fear of the default of the counterparts). It is the last resort when it is unlikely that a simple decrease in interest rates will achieve the necessary result. It was the weapon chosen by the Fed to combat the contraction of the credit that occurred during the great financial crisis of 2008. It is that the Fed prints more dollars and uses them to buy bonds of the US government, mainly of financial institutions. Which usually leads to a weakening of the US dollar.
The quantitative hardening (QT) is the reverse process for which the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvote the capital of the wallet values ​​that overcome in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US dollar.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
