- Non -agricultural payrolls are expected to increase in 110,000 in June, less than the increase of May 139,000.
- The US Labor Statistics Office will publish employment data on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
- The US employment report could significantly impact the performance of the US dollar, since it provides key data to evaluate the time of the next reduction of Fed fees.
Non -Agricultural Payroll (NFP) data from the United States (USA) will be published by the Office of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
The June Employment Report will be examined closely to evaluate the time of the next reduction of interest rates of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the US dollar address (USD), which It is negotiated near minimum of three and a half years in front of its main peers.
What to expect from the next report of non -agricultural payrolls?
Economists expect non -agricultural payroll to increase by 110,000 in June after reporting an increase of 139,000 in May. The unemployment rate (EU) will probably increase to 4.3% during the same period, after 4.2% in May.
Meanwhile, the average time per hour (AHE), a very observed salary inflation, are expected to increase in 3.9% year -on -year (yoy) in June, at the same rate that was seen in May.
In the prior of the June Employment Report, TD Securities analysts said: “We hope that NFP employment gains will be moderated to 125K in June. Homebase data suggests a similar deceleration in profits as in May. We also hope that the EU rate will rise to 4.3% since continuous applications have increased between the reference weeks.”
“Last month it simply was rounded to 4.2%. Ahe was probably modeled at 0.2% Mom from 0.4% (3.8% yoy). The advanced indicators suggest downward risks for employment data in June,” they added.
How will the Non -Agricultural payroll from the USA. to EUR/USD affect?
In the midst of renewed concerns about the ‘great and beautiful’ bill of expenses of the president of the USA Donald Trump and the tariffs, the US dollar has been close to the lowest level since February 2022 compared to its main currency rivals.
The markets reflected on the Perspectives of Fed Rate Cuts, especially after The caution comments of President Jerome Powell in the European Central Bank forum (ECB) on the central banking in Sintra on Tuesday.
Powell pointed out that “we are taking our time, while the US economy is solid, what is prudent is to wait.”
However, the president of the Fed clarified: “I would not rule out any meeting. I cannot say if July is too soon to cut rates, it will depend on the data.”
On the data front, Tuesday’s Jolts report showed that Employment offers in the US, a measure of labor demand, increased by 374,000 to 7,769 million The last day of May, well above the expectations of 7.3 million in the reported period. The USM manufacturing PMI of the United States improved 49 in June compared to May 48.5 and the 48.8 forecast.
In contrast, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report showed on Wednesday that The US private sector payrolls fell into 33,000 jobs last monththe first decrease since March 2023, after an increase reviewed down 29,000 in May. Market forecast was an increase of 95,000.
The operators are now valuing 64 basic points (BPS) of cuts this year by the Fed, with the probabilities of a movement in July in 25%, according to the probabilities of Refinitiv interest rates.
Therefore, bets are high in the face of June employment data, since the Fed adheres to its ‘data dependent’ rhetoric.
A reading below the level of 100,000 and an expected increase in the unemployment rate could indicate more lax labor conditions, increasing the probabilities of a Fed rates cut this month.
This scenario will probably exacerbate the pain of the USD and strengthen the recovery of the price of gold from the monthly minimums.
In the event that the NFP prints above 150,000 and the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, gold could continue its setback from the weekly maximums, since the data could counteract the expectations of more than two fed rate cuts this year.
DHWANI MEHTA, leading analyst of the Asian session at FXSTERET, offers a brief technical perspective for the EUR/USD:
“The main currency pair runs the risk of a setback towards the support of the simple mobile average (SMA) of 21 days in 1,1568, since the 14 -day relative force index (RSI) is maintained in the territory of overblain above level 70 in the daily graphic.”
“Buyers must exceed September 2021 of 1,1909 to extend the upward trend towards the psychological level of 1.2000. On the contrary, the EUR/USD could challenge the 21 -day SMA in 1,1568 if a correction begins. The next objectives are aligned at the round level of 1,1500 and the 50 -day SMA in 1,1414.”
Economic indicator
Non -agricultural payrolls
The most important result contained in the report on the employment situation is the monthly change in non -agricultural payrolls published by the US Department of Labor. The report publishes the employment creation estimates of the previous month and reviews in the data of the previous two months. Monthly changes in payrolls can be very volatile and the publication of this report generates high volatility in the dollar. A result superior to the market consensus is bullish for the dollar, while a result lower than expectations is bassist.
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Next publication:
JU JUL 03, 2025 12:30
Frequency:
Monthly
Dear:
110K
Previous:
139K
Fountain:
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The United States Monthly Employment Report is considered the most important economic indicator for foreign exchange operators. Published the first Friday following the informed month, the change in the number of employees is closely related to the general performance of the economy and is monitored by those responsible for the formulation of policies. Full employment is one of the mandates of the Federal Reserve and considers the evolution of the labor market by establishing its policies, which affects the currencies. Despite several advanced indicators that shape estimates, non -agricultural payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. The real figures that exceed consensus tend to be bulls for the USD.
EMPLOYMENT – FREQUENT QUESTIONS
The conditions of the labor market are a key element to evaluate the health of an economy and, therefore, a key factor for the assessment of currencies. A high level of employment, or a low level of unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and, therefore, for economic growth, which drives the value of the local currency. On the other hand, a very adjusted labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to cover vacancies – can also have implications in inflation levels and, therefore, in monetary policy, since a low labor supply and high demand lead to higher wages.
The rhythm to which salaries grow in an economy is key to political leaders. A high salary growth means that households have more money to spend, which usually translates into increases in consumer goods. Unlike other more volatile inflation sources, such as energy prices, salary growth is considered a key component of the underlying and persistent inflation, since it is unlikely that salary increases will fall apart. Central banks around the world pay close attention to salary growth data when deciding their monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to the conditions of the labor market depends on its objectives. Some central banks have explicitly related mandates to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The United States Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the double mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the only mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB) is to maintain inflation under control. Even so, and despite the mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for the authorities given its importance as an indicator of the health of the economy and its direct relationship with inflation.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
