Now that Russia has finally invaded Ukraine, the West must stop Putin – But how?

After months of “challenges”, Russia has finally invaded Ukraine, and the big question for the West now, according to CNBC, is: Can it stop Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin?

Putin announced the attack on Ukraine in the early hours of Tuesday (Greek time), announcing the launch of a “special military operation” aimed, as he said, at the “demilitarization and cleansing by the Nazis” of Ukraine.

In a televised address, Putin said Russia had no plans to occupy Ukraine, but simply wanted to protect its citizens. He also issued a creepy warning that any countries trying to intervene in Russia’s actions would face “consequences they have never seen before.”

Then came Russian attacks on cities across Ukraine, with reports of explosions in several major Ukrainian cities, including Kiev, Odessa, Kharkiv and Mariupol.

Other official reports and eyewitness accounts said that in addition to airstrikes, Russian tanks and troops invaded from the Russian border in various areas in the north, east and south of the country, and Russian bombardment continued in various locations, including the provinces.

By mid-Thursday, the Ukrainian military said Russia had fired more than 30 missiles at civilian and military infrastructure with Kalibr cruise missiles.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on Thursday that “in the coming days and weeks, even more [στρατιώτες]”Therefore, we will further strengthen our presence in the eastern wing of the Alliance”, although he reiterated that NATO has no plans to send troops to Ukraine.

The Kremlin said in a statement Thursday morning that Putin would decide how long the military operation would last “based on its progress and goals.”

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peshkov also told reporters that Ukraine should be “ideally” “liberated” but added that “no one is talking about occupying Ukraine” and that this was “unacceptable”, according to Reuters.

The result was a shocking escalation after months of tensions and concerns over Russia’s aspirations for its neighbor.

Thursday’s attack came days after Putin recognized the independence of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine and ordered Russian troops to enter the region as a “peacekeeping force”, a claim widely criticized.

According to CNBC, analysts and officials thought that the move could be a harbinger of a larger invasion of eastern Donbass, Ukraine, but Thursday’s attack is much larger and took place earlier than many Westerners feared.

Geostrategic experts believe that Moscow’s military offensive is aimed at provoking a change of government in Ukraine and the establishment of a pro-Russian regime in Kiev.

“Based on Putin’s speech and the initial waves of the attack, it is clear that we are facing an ‘unfavorable’ scenario, where Russia launches large-scale attacks across Ukraine and aims to overthrow the Kiev government by military means,” he said in a statement. on Thursday, Henry Roome, director of global macroeconomic research at the Eurasia Group.

“Despite Putin’s claims to the contrary, it is possible that this will include the occupation of certain territories by Russian forces,” he added.

The Russian attack shocks global financial markets, sinking Wall Street futures and boosting world oil prices. European markets have been shaken by the opening of the meeting on Thursday, as another military conflict erupted on European soil.

Are the sanctions enough?

US and European officials have tried to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine by pledging a barrage of further sanctions against the country, CNBC reports.

Earlier this week, a series of sanctions were imposed on Russians, financial institutions and Russia’s state-funded system, following Moscow’s decision to recognize Ukraine’s two breakaway regions.

US President Joe Biden has vowed to impose further sanctions that will hit Russia’s economy after the start of the Russian invasion. The EU, which borders Ukraine to the west, convened an emergency summit later on Thursday to discuss its reaction. German Chancellor Olaf Soltz called Russia’s move a “dark day for Europe” and called on Moscow to immediately suspend military action.

However, it is uncertain whether the sanctions are enough to deter Putin, as sanctions imposed on Russia after the annexation of the Crimean peninsula did not discourage the Russian president.

The West has also promised to provide Ukraine with more military equipment to defend itself, but how long Kiev could resist Russian forces is unpredictable.

Timothy As, a senior emerging market analyst at Bleubay Asset Management, said on Thursday that “Putin is setting up a new Iron Curtain across emerging Europe. We are all less secure because of it.”

“The West must immediately impose sanctions on Russia,” he said.

For its part, Ukraine is urgently asking for help, with Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba posting on Twitter a list of “what the West should do”, asking for more weapons, as well as financial and humanitarian aid.

In another post, Kuleba called on the public to prevent Putin from inflicting further damage on Ukraine, saying: “People can and must stop Putin. Now is the time to act.”

Western countries, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, have supported Ukraine by providing financial assistance and military equipment, while other European countries have provided military equipment to reinforce NATO forces in Eastern Europe.

Ukraine is not a member of the EU or NATO – the military alliance formed by the countries of North America and Europe – so NATO has no obligation to defend it.

Therefore, questions are raised about how drastically the West will move to prevent the complete “submission” of Ukraine to Russia, while it is unclear whether the US and the EU intend to “respond” by military means.

The Eurasia Group Room expects a broad package of sanctions to be announced soon, which would mean isolating Russia from the global financial system and severely hurting its economy.

“It will include the addition of many, if not all, of the major Russian banks to the Specially Designated Nationals list, the imposition of new restrictions on high-tech exports, and the extension of sanctions against oligarchs and families of Russian political elites.” adds.

At the same time, he believes that “the EU and the United Kingdom will impose similar sanctions. Given the seriousness of the Russian actions, they expect that Western policymakers will act more drastically in the face of their unfavorable scenario, which puts on the table the possibility “Russia’s cut from the SWIFT financial trading system. And the Nord Stream 2 pipeline will be sidelined indefinitely.”

Germany already announced earlier this week that it was “freezing” the process of approving the gas pipeline, which was intended to double Russian gas imports from Germany and the rest of Europe.

New Cold War?

The West is now under pressure to deal with Russia’s growing aggression, especially against its neighbors and former Soviet states such as Ukraine, Georgia and Belarus.

What makes Ukraine particularly important, however, is its geostrategic position on Europe’s right-wing borders – which “hosts” some of the world’s largest and longest-lived democracies and economies.

Russia’s president has long praised the “unity” of Ukrainians and Russians, through speeches and even an essay on the historical, cultural and linguistic ties between the two peoples. The dissolution of the USSR, which led to the creation of the independent Ukrainian state, was wrong.

The Ukrainian government, however, has sought to align itself with Europe, aspiring to join the EU and NATO.

This turn to the West has become an “apple of contention” for Putin, who wants to maintain Russia’s sphere of influence, and Russia has called for legal guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, a development that would bring the Alliance on the border of Russia.

Russia’s demand, however, was rejected by the West, leading Russia to claim that its security concerns had been ignored.

The Eurasia Group Room said Russia’s latest attack and Western sanctions would have a “significant impact on the world economy” and that the Russian invasion would mark the beginning of a new Cold War between the United States and Russia, creating a rift between Washington and Moscow and limiting their diplomatic relations to the absolutely basic level “.

“It will also signal a major militarization of Europe ‘s borders, escalating tensions between Russia and NATO countries, the Baltic states and the Black Sea. “Hungary and Romania – a fact that runs the risk of dragging members of the Alliance into conflict. Finally, huge refugee flows are looming on the horizon,” Room warned.

At present, it is unclear whether Russia has the military potential to occupy Ukraine.

“Although the concentration of Russian troops is significant, their numbers are still insufficient to occupy and hold large parts of Ukrainian territory, especially given the expected strong domestic resistance,” Andrew Tours said in a report Wednesday night. on Central and Eastern Europe at Teneo Intelligence.

He notes that Moscow’s possible goal was to force Ukraine to comply with Russia’s demands.

“Earlier this week, Putin outlined a range of demands from Kiev, including 1) recognition of Crimea and Sevastopol as Russian territories, 2) renunciation of NATO membership plans, 3) demilitarization of the country and 4) negotiation. “As for the situation in Donbas,” Tursa said.

To achieve its goals, Russia could take a series of actions, “including military action aimed at weakening the country’s defense capabilities, inflicting significant losses and destroying vital infrastructure, hoping for a speedy capitulation of the Ukrainian side.” “, He added.
In short, Tursa noted that Moscow may try to use various tactics to destabilize and discourage Ukraine.

“These could include large-scale terrorist acts, political assassinations, cyber-attacks and critical infrastructure, and even actions aimed at sowing chaos and undermining the country’s ability and willingness to defend (its entity).”

Source: Capital

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