The NZD/USD is consolidated around 0.6000. The RBNZ adopts a moderate posture. The RBNZ maintained the official cash (OCR) rate without changes in 3.25%, as it was largely anticipated, and pointed out that ‘if medium -term inflationary pressures continue to decrease as projected, the committee hopes to reduce the official rate of cash even more.’ The guide is in line with the projection of the RBNZ delineated in May, which sees the minimum of the OCR in 2.85% during the first quarter of 2026, BBH FX analysts report.
The moderate guide keeps the consolidated Kiwi
“The RBNZ Committee discussed two options at today’s meeting: cut the OCR at 25 basic points or maintain the OCR without changes. According to the RBNZ,” the case to reduce the OCR in this meeting highlighted the weak impulse of short -term growth and the risk of prolonged weakness in economic activity due to the excessive precaution of households and companies in the face of economic uncertainty. “
“The case to maintain the OCR without changes in this meeting highlighted the high level of uncertainty and the benefits of waiting until August in the light of short -term inflationary risks.” Swaps markets value the probabilities of a 25 basic points at the meeting on August 20, little changed with respect to the assessment observed before today’s meeting. “
“In our opinion, the RBNZ is close to the end of its relaxation cycle, which is favorable for the NZD. Inflation in New Zealand is within the target range and the OCR is close to the estimation of the midpoint of the RBNZ of the neutral range between 2% and 4%.”
Source: Fx Street

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