NZD/USD extends its profit streak, approaching new maximums of the year

  • The NZD/USD quotes about 0.6071, registering a fifth consecutive day of profits and pointing at maximum of the year.
  • Trump’s criticisms of Powell, the weak data of the US GDP of the first quarter and the unfaired between Iran and Israel weigh on the US dollar.
  • Anz Salta’s consumer confidence 5.9 points to 98.8 in June.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) extends its winning streak against the US dollar (USD) for fifth consecutive session on Friday, driven by the widespread weakness of the dollar. The NZD/USD torque is registering a solid recovery from a minimum of six weeks, advancing to quote around 0.6071, just below the maximum of the year.

The US dollar is still under pressure after the new criticisms of the president of the US, Donald Trump, to the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, which has generated concerns about the independence of the Central Bank. Meanwhile, the relaxation of geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel is supporting the appetite for risk, which weighs even more on the US dollar of safe refuge.

The American dollar index (DXY) remains about a minimum of three years, around 97.10.

The data published above Friday showed that the Anz-Roy Morgan Confidence Index jumped 5.9 points to 98.8 in June, its highest level in six months, from 92.9 above. All subcomponents improved, with a remarkable increase in the number of homes that say it is a good time to buy important household items.

The New Zealand Reserve Bank (RBNZ) reduced the official cash (OCR) rate to 3.25% in May, marking its sixth consecutive cut and aligning with market expectations.

Since the relaxation cycle began in August 2024, the Central Bank has cut the rates from a 5.5%peak. However, there are signs that suggest that the cycle can be close to its end.

The governor of the RBNZ, Christian Hawkesby, recently said that “a new cut in the OCR is not an consummated fact” at the next meeting on July 9, emphasizing a more cautious and dependent approach to the dataaccording to a BHH Marketview report.

The swap market now values ​​only a 20% probability of a cut in July and implies 36 basic points of additional relaxation during the next year, with the projected policy rate to play fund between 2.75% and 3.00%.

On the US side, the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed are increasing in a growing political noise. President Donald Trump is considering announcing his favorite candidate for the presidency of the Fed as soon as in September or October, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Speculation is increasing on whether Trump could try to direct monetary policy through a “shadow president”, an unofficial figure responsible for influencing the Fed direction before the end of Jerome Powell’s mandate in May 2026. The markets reacted quickly, with the operators increasing their bets for wire cuts. The CME Group Fedwatch tool now shows a 60% probability of three cuts in 2025, a considerable increase from the expectations of only two earlier this week.

New data added weight to moderate posture. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) —The Fed Inflation Indicator – rose 0.2% intermencing in May, above 0.1% forecast. In interannual terms, the index rose to 2.7%, from 2.6%of April, and slightly above the market forecasts of 2.6%, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain stable.

New Zealander dollar today

The lower table shows the percentage of change of the New Zealand dollar (NZD) compared to the main coins today. New Zealand dollar was the strongest currency against the Japanese yen.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD Aud NZD CHF
USD -0.40% -0.07% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% -0.14% -0.41%
EUR 0.40% 0.29% 0.42% 0.41% 0.40% 0.12% -0.07%
GBP 0.07% -0.29% 0.16% 0.09% 0.11% -0.12% -0.27%
JPY -0.03% -0.42% -0.16% -0.02% -0.03% -0.35% -0.38%
CAD -0.02% -0.41% -0.09% 0.02% 0.03% -0.28% -0.40%
Aud -0.02% -0.40% -0.11% 0.03% -0.03% -0.27% -0.38%
NZD 0.14% -0.12% 0.12% 0.35% 0.28% 0.27% -0.12%
CHF 0.41% 0.07% 0.27% 0.38% 0.40% 0.38% 0.12%

The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the New Zealand dollar of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the NZD (base)/USD (quotation).

Source: Fx Street

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