NZD/USD falls to the cautious tone of the Fed and the weak context of New Zealand that presses the pair

• The torque operates near the 0.5900 area after falling 0.40%, pressed by a softer panorama in New Zealand and a stable US dollar.
• The IPP and US retail sales did not meet the expectations, but Powell of the Fed adopted a cautious tone that supports the stability of the dollar.
• The technical bias is bassist; Support at 0.5860 and 0.5846, resistance at 0.5878 and 0.5884.

The NZD/USD is negotiating around the level of 0.5900 on Thursday, facing a renewed pressure in the middle of the cautious feeling of divergent macroeconomic investors and signals. Despite the softer retail inflation and sales data than expected in the US, the comments of the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, offered enough peace of mind to keep the dollar on a stable base. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar fought to win traction in the midst of local tax advertisements that failed to inspire an upward response.

The US data published on Thursday showed that the production price index (IPP) increased by 2.4%annual in April, below the expectations of 2.5%, while retail sales increased only 0.1%, remaining below the hopes of the market in general. These publications fed the growing speculation that the Federal Reserve could begin to reduce the rates later in 2025. However, in their comments at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Powell highlighted the need to review the FED policy framework in the light of the persistent offer clashes, reaffirming a measured and patient approach towards changes in the fees. This neutral posture helped the US dollar recover from intradic losses and limited the downward impulse.

In contrast, New Zealand’s economic narrative is still weak. The Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, presented a social investment fund of NZ $ 190 million, aimed at improving long -term results for vulnerable groups. While the initiative underlines fiscal discipline and directed intervention, it had an immediate limited impact on the feeling of the NZD. Market attention now focuses on the Business Nz manufacturing performance index on Thursday afternoon and the survey of inflation expectations of the RBNZ on Friday, both of which can mold expectations for future rates decisions by the New Zealand Reserve Bank.

TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE OF THE NZD/USD

From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD maintains a bearish bias, with the torque sliding towards the midpoint of the daily range between 0.5860 and 0.5916. The relative force index (RSI) is located at 40, showing a weak impulse, while the MACD prints a sales signal. Additional neutral signals of the stochastic K, product channel index (CCI) and bullish/bassist power suggest a lack of conviction for a rebound. The short -term indicators, including the 10 -day EMA and the 20 -day SMA, reinforce the downward pressure, while only the 100 -day SMA offers a modest bullish support.

The key support levels are observed at 0.5860, 0.5846 and 0.5829, while the resistance is about 0.5878, 0.5883 and 0.5884. Unless New Zealand data surprises up, the torque can continue to slide down as investors favor the relative security of the US dollar in a cautious macro environment.