NZD/USD Forecast: Wall Street weighs on commodity currencies

• Investors focused on government bond yields and equities.
• Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock will speak early on Friday.
• The NZD/USD pair could accelerate its decline if it breaks the 0.6078 zone.

The NZD/USD pair is trading just below the 0.6100 signal ahead of the Asian open, ending Thursday with modest losses. The pair reached 0.6123 early in the day, but quickly turned lower as the US dollar found support in strong US data and the soft tone of the stock markets. However, it should be added that, after spending most of the day in the red, Wall Street has managed to cut initial losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite posting modest gains and the S&P 500 about to end the day with few changes, just below the 5,000 point signal.

Stocks and returns in the spotlight

The focus was not just on actions. Investors also paid attention to US Treasury yields, which rose on the day on signs that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has no reason to rush to cut interest rates. Multiple monetary policy makers spoke out these days and supported President Jerome Powell's concepts, expressed after the last monetary policy. The main idea is that interest rates will remain at current levels until officials are more confident that inflation will stabilize around their 2% target.

Meanwhile, strong US employment data took pressure off policymakers. The country reported that weekly jobless claims rose to 218,000 in the week ending February 2, exceeding the 220,000 expected.

The macroeconomic calendar will remain thin in Asia on Friday, with only a speech from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock on the agenda.

NZD/USD Technical Outlook

The NZD/USD pair remained within known levels, maintaining a technically neutral stance. The daily chart shows sellers lined up around a bearish 20 SMA, while intraday buying interest emerged around a flat 200 SMA, the latter around 0.6080.

The same chart shows that technical indicators have lost momentum within negative levels, lacking sufficient directional strength to anticipate a new leg to the south.

Breaking the daily low at 0.6078 would reinforce the possibility of a new pullback. Speculative interest will then seek to test buyers' resolve at 0.6028, the February monthly low.