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NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bears gain ground after US PCE readings.

  • The NZD/USD pair is consolidating below the 0.5973 20-day SMA towards the 0.5950 zone, marking a second straight day of losses.
  • The core CPI increased in July to 3.3%, as expected by the markets.
  • Fed tightening expectations eased somewhat, but NFPs remain closely watched.

On Thursday, the NZD/USD pair posted losses, buoyed by strong economic data, sending the dollar rallying against most of its rivals. Over the week, the US economy has sent mixed signals, and markets are eagerly awaiting Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report to continue placing their bets on the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), one of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges, rose to 3.3% year-on-year in July, in line with market expectations. In addition, initial jobless claims for the week ending August 25 stood at 228,000, down from 235,000 expected and 232,000 previously. Other data showed that the Chicago PMI rose to 48.7, beating both expected and previous figures.

Reacting to the strong PCE and claims numbers, the USD, as measured by the DXY Index, rose to 103.70, posting gains of over 0.50%, while US Treasury yields rallied a bit but remain lower. .

Regarding the expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the World Interest Rates Probabilities tool suggests to the markets that the probabilities of a rise of 25 basis points stand at 50%, below 70% on Tuesday, for the November meeting. However, these bets are likely to change after the Non-Farm Payrolls release on Friday, as a positive reading could push investors into higher odds.

NZD/USD Levels to Watch

Looking at the daily chart, we see a neutral to bearish trend for the NZD/USD, with bears gradually taking over. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals bearish-sloping selling momentum below its midpoint, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) shows flat green bars. Furthermore, the pair is below the 20,100 and 200-day SMAs, indicating that sellers dominate the overall outlook and buyers need to redouble their efforts.

Support levels: 0.5940, 0.5930, 0.5900.

Resistance levels: 0.5973 (20-day SMA), 0.6000, 0.6030.

NZD/USD Daily Chart


Last price today 0.5952
Today Change Daily -0.0004
today’s daily variation -0.07
today’s daily opening 0.5956
daily SMA20 0.5981
daily SMA50 0.611
daily SMA100 0.6144
daily SMA200 0.6224
previous daily high 0.6007
previous daily low 0.5939
Previous Weekly High 0.5987
previous weekly low 0.5885
Previous Monthly High 0.6413
Previous monthly minimum 0.612
Fibonacci daily 38.2 0.5965
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 0.5981
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5928
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5899
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.586
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5996
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6035
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6064

Source: Fx Street

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