NZD/USD Price Analysis: Mild Rally Challenges Short-Term Resistance

• NZD/USD rises and settles near 0.5615 while flirting with the 20-day SMA.
• The RSI jumps to 42, moving sharply up but still stuck in negative territory.
• The MACD histogram prints decreasing green bars, highlighting a moderate recovery outlook.

The NZD/USD pair added a modest 0.30% on Wednesday, rising to 0.5615 after extending gains beyond its 20-day SMA. This marginal push above the moving average could be the catalyst bulls have been waiting for, as long as it remains stable in the coming sessions. Sentiment has shown signs of improving from oversold levels, although the market tone remains cautious overall.

Technical readings suggest that momentum is starting to change. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 42, indicating an encouraging rebound, it remains positioned in negative territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) histogram is producing fewer green bars, signaling that although buyers are gradually entering, the pair’s rebound remains fragile.

If NZD/USD can solidify its position above the 20-day SMA near 0.5600, traders could target further upside towards the 0.5650 resistance zone, with a move beyond this level potentially opening the door to 0.5700 . Conversely, a drop below 0.5580 would undermine the recent bounce and leave the pair vulnerable to retesting the 0.5550 zone or lower.

NZD/USD daily chart